2024 NFL Mock Draft

Caleb Williams is expected to be the first pick in the 2024 NFL Draft

Spring is in the air and hope blossoms for 32 NFL franchises as they prepare for the yearly NFL draft where they dip their toes into the evergreen pool of collegiate prospects ready to make their mark in the big league. I’ll once more attempt to fill the shoes of the 32 general managers who’ll be selecting players on behalf of their teams, making my best guess at predicting which prospects will land where. Without further ado, let’s get right into it with the Chicago Bears at number one overall

1. Chicago Bears – Caleb Williams, QB, USC

It seems widely accepted that the Bears are going to tab USC product Williams with the top overall pick after they made the decision to move on from Justin Fields and trade him to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Despite a slightly underwhelming 2023 season Williams possesses an elite arm, playmaking ability and the frame to withstand the physicality of the big league. Comparisons to Patrick Mahomes may seem lofty, yet even 50% of the Chiefs star’s output would represent a roaring success for a team who have perennially struggled for even above average quarterback play.

2. Washington Commanders – Drake Maye, QB, UNC

The choice for Washington here appears to be between Maye and LSU QB Jayden Daniels, with Daniels resume perhaps the more impressive while Maye has the tools that scouts love to project into the NFL. Maye has great size and can move, drawing comparisons to the likes of Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence. Much has been made of the promising situation Williams will enter with Chicago, however it should be noted that the Commanders also give their next signal caller a punchers chance due to their receiver duo of Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson, while Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler are more than useful options out of the backfield.

3. New England Patriots – Jayden Daniels, QB, USC

It’s tough to see New England pass, no pun intended, on a quarterback after their post-Tom Brady struggles at the position. Owner Robert Kraft is reported to be desperate to see a return to relevance via an exciting offense, which should lead them to whichever one of Maye and Daniels isn’t chosen at second overall. Daniels is a fantastic athlete who can really move, however he sometimes struggles to avoid big hits and with his wiry body could find himself exposed against bigger defenders. That said, it’s hard to argue with his college production at LSU and Daniels is widely considered to have the mental makeup befitting a franchise quarterback.

4. Arizona Cardinals – Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

There’s probably a fair chance the Cardinals look to move out of this spot in order to stockpile more picks, however they already made that move last year at the beginning of their rebuild and could now feel they’re in a position to add an elite level talent to take their offense to the next level. Harrison is regarded as a generational prospect who has good size combined with exceptional explosiveness and the hands befitting the son of an NFL hall of fame receiver. Harrison Jr. has been pegged for big things since he arrived at OSU and a pairing of him and Kyler Murray is a frightening prospect for NFC West defences.

5. Los Angeles Chargers – Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

If Harrison Jr. is 1A in this class, Nabers is firmly 1B with draft expert Dane Brugler of The Athletic stating Nabers would’ve been his top prospect in either of the past two draft classes. That’s high praise and while many might predict Jim Harbaugh will make an offensive lineman his first draft choice in LA giving Justin Herbert a number one option is too good to pass up. Having let Mike Williams and Keenan Allen leave they’re surely primed to add a pass catching option in the first two rounds.

6. New York Giants – Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

New York is in a tricky spot with incumbent QB Daniel Jones coming off a torn ACL yet saddled with a rich contract that most likely keeps him as the starter for at least one more season. J.J McCarthy is an option here, yet Odunze fills a huge hole at receiver and is certainly deserving of a pick so high. Jalin Hyatt was selected in the third round last year and showed flashes late but it’s clear there’s a glaring need for an alpha to replace some of the offensive production that was lost when running back Saquon Barkley bolted for Philadelphia.

7. Tennessee Titans – Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

One of the more popular matches in the top ten is Alt to the Titans, a team in need of line help for a young quarterback in Will Levis who they’re hoping to evaluate in an adequate setting this season. Alt is a physical specimen, he ranks in the 95th percentile for the 3-cone drill and the 91st for the 20-yard shuttle, and comes from a big program in Notre Dame ready to help shore up Levis’ blindside. With 2023 first rounder Peter Skoronski embedded at left guard Tennessee could follow the Detroit Lions blueprint of building an elite offensive line and letting things develop from there.

8. Atlanta Falcons – Jared Verse, DE, Florida State

There’s an outside chance no defensive player goes in the top ten this year, which would be a record (the previous low was number eight in 2021), however in this scenario the Falcons find no trade down partner and after years of stockpiling offensive weapons in the top ten they take the plunge by selecting FSU product Verse. Since Vic Beasley amassed 16 sacks in 2016 no Falcons player has cracked double digits in a single season, a streak they’ll be hoping Verse can help them snap as soon as next year. One knock on Verse is his age, he’s 24, although it’s worth noting prospects in general are on the older side in this class due to the COVID season(s) that led to many players taking advantage of their extra year of college eligibility.

9. Chicago Bears – JC Latham, OT, Alabama

Chicago makes the wise choice to protect their Caleb Williams investment here by adding Bama’s JC Latham to the fold. A huge man at 6’6″ and 340lbs, Latham has only ever played on the right hand side which traditionally might scare teams off. However, in the modern NFL the difference between right and left matters less and less, with Philadelphia’s Lane Johnson case in point of a high draft pick who more than lived up to his draft slot despite remaining entirely on the right hand side throughout his career. An elite tackle is an elite tackle, and Latham has the upside of a franchise staple thanks to his outstanding size, traits and pedigree, particularly on the run blocking front.

10. New York Jets – Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State

I’m sure the Jets would have loved to give Aaron Rodgers one of the top three receivers in the class to throw to, however with that trio long gone they instead take what might actually be the best route by strengthening an offensive line that’s been a big problem for a number of years now. At 40 years of age and coming off a torn achilles Rodgers could use all the help he can get staying upright, something Fuaga excelled at in 2023 when according to PFF he allowed a grand total of zero sacks. Some scouts view Fuaga as more of an interior offensive lineman as opposed to tackle but that shouldn’t deter New York from adding him at the final spot in the top ten, especially with incumbent guard Alijah Vera-Tucker’s future in flux while the team decides whether or not to pick up his fifth year option.

11. Minnesota Vikings – J.J McCarthy, QB, Michigan

It’s absolutely no secret that the Vikings need a quarterback and having acquired the 23rd overall selection via trade with Houston they have the ammo to trade up, if needed. In this scenario they don’t; McCarthy falls into their laps and no other quarterback needy team leapfrogs them with McCarthy a polarising prospect among the draftniks out there. On the one hand, the Michigan product did nothing but win at the college level, taking home a national title in January, however he did so on incredibly low volume and behind an absolute juggernaut of an offensive line. There’s more projection with McCarthy than other players due to his limited experience but in terms of profile he’s similar to the man he could potentially replace in Kirk Cousins, albeit with more mobility and arguably slightly less arm talent.

12. Denver Broncos – Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

Sean Peyton saw first hand what an elite tight end could do for a team when he made a star out of Jimmy Graham in New Orleans and in this instance he repeats the trick with Bowers, a YAC monster who’s been earmarked as a star at the next level for a few years. While Bowers undoubtedly possesses the traits to make it in the NFL, it should be noted that tight ends don’t always translate with Kyle Pitts one of only two rookies ever to top 1,000 yards at the position. Even Pitts, a generational prospect, has struggled since his initial breakthrough and when you look at where some of the best tight ends in the league were drafted you may begin to see a pattern (Travis Kelce in the third round and George Kittle in the fifth are two that immediately spring to mind). Another consideration with Bowers is the “tightrope” ankle surgery he undertook last October, a procedure that has been known to rob players of their explosiveness in recent seasons.

13. Las Vegas Raiders – Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama

A second defensive player flies off the board as the Raiders address one of their many defensive holes with Alabama playmaker Arnold. The Las Vegas defense actually played well down the stretch under then interim head coach Antonio Pierce, yet they notably lacked skill in the secondary which is something Arnold should be able to fix in a pinch upon joining the team. Quarterback might be in play here, Gardner Minshew is currently projected to start, however it might be more likely that the team attempts to move back into the first round later on to grab one of Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr. as opposed to reaching for them inside the top 13. A first team All-American in 2023 with five interceptions, Arnold certainly doesn’t lack for skill and while he doesn’t possess elite measurables he is more than big enough at six feet tall exactly, while his 4.50 40-yard dash time is right around average for a prospect at the position.

14. New Orleans Saints – Dallas Turner, DE, Alabama

The Crimson Tide have their second consecutive defensive standout go off the board here, and their third player overall in the top 14, in the form of Turner, a potential gamewrecking force on the defensive line who head coach Dennis Allen will absolutely love. The Saints added Chase Young in free agency on a one year deal, however he’s already undergone neck surgery and with Zach Baun heading to Philadelphia on a free agent deal of his own they could certainly do with the pass rushing juice a first round rookie would provide. Turner racked up double digit sacks in Tuscaloosa last year and was also used in coverage on occasion, something Allen would be well placed to utilise with his well crafted and flexible defensive scheme.

15. Indianapolis Colts – Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo

The defensive run on players continues as the Colts address one of their glaring weaknesses from a season ago. The immediate question everyone seems to be asking about Mitchell is whether or not a player from such a small school is deserving of such high selection, yet the counterpoints of his production, athletic testing (4.33 40) and strong Senior Bowl showing would appear to quash those concerns handily. Like with Tennessee earlier in this exercise, this team/position fit appears to be a match made in heaven, especially as the middle of the first round appears to be the defensive sweetspot of this particular pool of players.

16. Seattle Seahawks – Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas

After watching Aaron Donald wreak havoc on their offensive line for a decade the Seahawks decide to beef up their own interior with Murphy, a pass rushing force who is slightly undersized – not unlike the aforementioned future hall of famer from LA. Offensive line is another area Seattle could decide to reinforce, however with a defensive minded head coach in town you wouldn’t be surprised to see them attempt to recreate the unit Mike Macdonald had in Baltimore, with Murphy comp Justin Madubuike one of his main lieutenants.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars – Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU

With Calvin Ridley departing in free agency the Jaguars are in prime position to take the first of the “second tier” wideouts in the class, with Thomas widely regarded to be the fourth receiver on the 2024 Mount Rushmore. 6’4″ and over 200lbs, Thomas possesses prototypical size and has good hands and after the catch ability, with the main concern about his game being his route running and overall polish. You’d be forgiven for thinking the above sounds a lot like a player like D.K Metcalf, another specimen who fell due to questions about his ability to run the full route tree. Metcalf was a great example of teams overthinking it; in this scenario no such thing happens as Jacksonville gladly give Trevor Lawrence a new toy to play with alongside off-season recruit Gabe Davis.

18. Cincinnati Bengals – Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State

Cincinnati is one of a number of teams who’ve struggled to protect their franchise quarterback in recent seasons, with the star passer falling foul to multiple ailments in the 2023 campaign. Fashanu would appear to be the last of the tier one offensive tackles on the board, making this a straightforward selection as the Bengals aim to return to the post-season in the new campaign. Although Cincy already has Trent and Orlando Brown on the roster they could move one, or Fashanu, inside for a year in order to facilitate the Penn State product. You can never have too many offensive lineman, as they say (if “they” don’t say that, “they” should).

19. Los Angeles Rams – Laiatu Latu, DE, UCLA

It’s hard to believe the Rams haven’t made a first round pick since Jared Goff in 2016, yet after a string of trades for veterans over the past near-decade here we are. Latu would add talent to a defense that is lacking in it and is many experts preferred pass rusher in the class. The UCLA edge comes with a fairly notable caveat, however, as he has already once retired on medical grounds due to a neck injury. As a result it’s likely he won’t be on some teams boards at all, similarly to Miami Dolphins pass rusher Jaelan Phillips. That said, it only takes one team to fall in love with Latu’s production in 2023, when he chalked up 13 sacks and 21 TFL’s.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers – Graham Barton, OL, Duke

Barton played tackle at college but is widely projected as an interior offensive lineman in the NFL, which shouldn’t put the Steelers off as they have holes all across the front five. If they’re to give Russell Wilson (or Justin Fields) a chance to succeed next season they’ll need to improve upon their line play from the past few years where they’ve struggled to both protect their quarterback and open rushing lanes for Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. While some teams don’t like to draft interior lineman high it’s worth remembering that in 2010 the Steelers drafted centre Maurkice Pouncey at 18 overall, also under the stewardship of current head coach Mike Tomlin.

21. Miami Dolphins – Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington

The run on offensive lineman continues as Miami beefs up an offensive line that lost both Connor Williams and Robert Hunt in free agency. Left tackle Terron Armstead has had his injury problems for more than a few years now too, so a lineman with versatility would certainly appeal to Mike McDaniel as he aims to give Tua Tagovailoa the protection he needs in order to deliver passes to his dynamic wide receiver duo. Fautanu tested well and could play either guard or tackle depending on how his new team views his skillset, although he is on the older side for a prospect (as a college junior, no less) as he’ll soon turn 24.

22. Philadelphia Eagles – Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia

The Georgia to Philadelphia pipeline joke has been well done now and it’s unlikely to fade away anytime soon if Howie Roseman tabs Mims with the Eagles first round pick. Mims is raw but possesses the physical gifts that offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland will love. With Lane Johnson still going strong Mims can sit and learn for a year, which would be a wise investment given the organisational priority placed on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Philly has also been linked with a myriad of cornerbacks in the class, however Howie Roseman has yet to draft one in the first round during his long tenure at the helm and with Isiah Rodgers recently reinstated from the commissioner’s exempt list Roseman may well take his chances at that position, as he has done many times over the past decade-plus.

23. Minnesota Vikings – Cooper DeJean, DB, Iowa

Most mocks don’t even have the Vikings making this pick as they’re widely projected to move it in a trade up for a quarterback, however as we have them staying put and selecting J.J McCarthy at 11 they can add to their secondary in the form of Iowa’s DeJean, a cornerback who some see more as a safety in the pros. DeJean is big for a corner, in many ways the polar opposite of fellow first round corner prospect Nate Wiggins, and while he’s not as twitchy as someone like Wiggins he certainly has the production and pedigree to justify this draft slot. With the offensive side of the ball largely taken care of Minnesota would be thrilled here to address a defense that was a liability in 2023.

24. Dallas Cowboys – Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon

Jerry Jones isn’t shy of addressing the interior offensive line early in the draft and with Tyler Biadasz departed for pastures new they tab their centre of the present and future in the form of JPJ, a larger than average prospect for the position who excelled for the Ducks last season, earning first team All-American honours. Dallas could make a move for a wide receiver to play opposite CeeDee Lamb at this spot, keep an eye on Texas pass catcher Adonai Mitchell, however it’s an underrated of quality of Jones that he does pay attention to the lines of scrimmage and doesn’t just focus on the glamour positions.

25. Green Bay Packers – Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson

Green Bay get a great value in Wiggins this late in the first round, grabbing an elite, if undersized, athlete who’ll immediately address their oft exposed inability to cover on the back end. Wiggins is more skinny than outright small, he’s 6’1″, but with a 4.28 40 time in his back pocket and just 176 yards allowed in coverage in 2023 there’s no doubt he can play. Fun fact: with the exception of Jordan Love the Packers haven’t taken an offensive player in the first round since 2011. That’s 12 out of 13 first rounders, a quite impressive (if not a little strange) record.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Chop Robinson, DE, Penn State

With Shaq Barrett departed in free agency Tampa Bay has a fairly obvious need at pass rusher, with Robinson stepping in to fill the void. Robinson struggled to get to the quarterback in college, however his mediocre production might not deter NFL teams from salivating over his elite measurables and explosive physique. Robinson is a boom or bust prospect but he couldn’t land in a better spot than under Buccaneers head coach and defensive mastermind Todd Bowles.

27. Arizona Cardinals – Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama

If McKinstry’s play is as exciting as his name the Cardinals will have themselves a steal at 27, nabbing the second Alabama corner of the first round after adding Marvin Harrison Jr. earlier in this mock on the offensive side of the ball. McKinstry was overshadowed by teammate Terrion Arnold at Bama but is a promising prospect in his own right, although he does come with injury concerns after suffering a foot injury this spring. Considered one of the more physical corners in this class, Kool-Aid is also known for his football IQ which should play in head coach Jonathan Gannon’s defensive scheme. Arizona is in desperate need of defensive reinforcement and McKinstry would be a solid way of getting the ball rolling in the desert.

28. Buffalo Bills – Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas

Stefon Diggs has been traded to Houston and Gabe Davis left in free agency, leaving two glaring holes on the depth chart and a severe lack of pass catching options for star QB Josh Allen. In comes Mitchell, a big bodied, fast athlete with big play potential (15.4 YPC in 2023). Strictly an outside receiver, Mitchell should slot in nicely given the Bills already have Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel who will command the majority of reps in the slot, alongside tight end pairing Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox.

29. Detroit Lions – Darius Robinson, DE, Missouri

Aidan Hutchinson gets his running mate on the defensive line as general manager Brad Holmes aims to raise the Lions defensive floor to a level more in line with the prolific offense, adding Robinson to a unit that ranked 23rd in opponents points per game last year. Robinson stood out in Senior Bowl practices and brings inside/outside versatility to the table, making him a good value this late in the first round. Strong rather than twitchy, the Missouri product is widely considered to be pro ready and should be an immediate contributor to whichever team selects him.

30. Baltimore Ravens – Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia

With Odell Beckham Jr. departed in free agency the Ravens continue to surround Lamar Jackson with weapons as they look to take the next step in their offensive evolution under coordinator Todd Monken. The Georgia star would pair nicely with Zay Flowers and with Mark Andrews returning from ankle surgery Baltimore should be well placed to repeat their regular season success in 2024. Whether or not that translates to the post-season remains to be seen, but they’ll be well aware that in order to compete with Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and company in the AFC a high powered offense is a prerequisite.

31. San Francisco 49ers – Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma

The 49ers could go in a number of different directions here, with both offensive and defensive line in play as well as the secondary and perhaps even wide receiver if Brandon Aiyuk is traded, as he’s rumoured to possibly be on the move as he seeks a new contract. Guyton would represent a genuine case of “best player available” and shore up an offensive line that crumbled at the worst possible time late on in San Francisco’s Superbowl loss. A giant at 6’7″, Guyton is quite raw but has all of the tools to develop into a cornerstone on the offensive line and help protect Brock Purdy while opening up rushing lanes for all-world running back Christian McCaffrey.

32. Kansas City Chiefs – Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State

Following Rashee Rice’s arrest earlier this month the Chiefs pull the same trick they did when Tyreek Hill was in legal trouble, drafting Rice’s potential replacement (in Hill’s case it was Mecole Hardman) as an insurance policy in case the sophomore receiver misses all or part of the 2024 season. The Chiefs have also previously shown a propensity for taking playmakers with the final pick of the first round, in 2020 it was running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and being honest even if Rice is able to play a part come September KC could do with more juice on offense with Travis Kelce ageing and Marquise Brown more of a stopgap option on a one year free agent deal.

Do you agree with who your team selected? Have your say in the comments or tweet @fredjstanley to tell me why I’m wrong.

2023 NFL Mock Draft

Bryce Young appears poised to be the first player taken in the 2023 NFL Draft

Once more the annual NFL draft is on the horizon, where hope springs eternal for downtrodden franchises and last season’s playoff teams retool for another crack at the biggest prize of all. The fun begins Thursday night, when the cream of the college crop step up to the podium when their name is called and they enter the professional ranks; I’ll attempt to take my usual inaccurate stab at which prospects will land where, based on team need, player fit and of course the perceived potential of each prospective NFL player. There are no trades in this mock, it’s hard enough trying to guess where each player will be selected, but no doubt on draft night there’ll be more than a few teams who move around throughout the 31 first round selections. Note that number, one fewer than the usual 32; Miami were docked their first round pick for tampering with Tom Brady while he was under contract with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Without further ado, let’s get going.

1. Carolina Panthers – Bryce Young, QB, Alabama

Following their trade with Chicago, Carolina appear primed to select a quarterback who they hope will be their first franchise passer since former MVP Cam Newton was under centre. Young and Ohio State’s C.J Stroud are among the favourites to be the selection, with all signs pointing towards Young being the pick. Young ticks all of the boxes teams look for in a QB: he has the arm strength, poise, accuracy and mobility teams covet. The catch is that he’s a generous 5 foot 10, weighing in at a dubious 204lbs at the combine in March. He’s almost historically small for the position and lacks the prototypical height and strength scouts drool over. Nonetheless, the Panthers seem set to make Young the first player taken in 2023, crossing their fingers that he’ll withstand hits from NFL players in the process.

2. Houston Texans – C.J Stroud, QB, Ohio State

Similarly to Carolina, Houston are in dire need of a quarterback to lead the franchise and they settle on Stroud here. The polished Ohio State passer saved his best collegiate game for last when he diced up the vaunted Georgia D for 348 yards and four touchdowns in the FBS Playoff semi-final, demonstrating his pocket awareness and his accuracy, although some analysts want to see a little bit more from him in the running game. It’s difficult to pick too many other holes in his game, with one of the more common reservations being the slightly contrived stance that Ohio State quarterbacks don’t translate well to the professional game. Stroud will almost certainly have the chance to disprove that theory as a top five pick in this class, with the Texans finally moving on from the Davis Mills experiment.

3. Arizona Cardinals – Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama

Another year, another draft dominated at the top by Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide. Anderson and Georgia’s Jalen Carter are widely regarded as the best two defensive players in the class, with Anderson’s cleaner off-field resume and more premium position working in his favour as the Cardinals begin what should be an almost complete overhaul of their roster. They lost J.J Watt to retirement after the 2022 season, yet even with Watt they struggled at almost every level of the defence. With defensive minded head coach Jonathan Gannon in the building they take a “can’t miss” prospect who should inject the pass rush with some juice and give the franchise a building block around whom they can build for the next five to ten years.

4. Indianapolis Colts – Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida

What Richardson lacks in polish he more than makes up for with his raw tools, drawing some comparisons to Bills star Josh Allen with his rocket arm and explosive rushing ability. Justin Fields is another comp for Richardson, who only started 12 games during his college career and offers real boom or bust potential. New Colts head coach Shane Steichen crafted one of the league’s top offences around Jalen Hurts’ rushing ability, so if anyone can make the most of Richardon’s unique talents it might be him. Indianapolis have been going year to year at the position ever since Andrew Luck’s shock retirement; Richardson finally offers something resembling a long term plan, although it might come without the safe “floor” offered by prior Colts QB’s Jacoby Brissett, Phillip Rivers and Matt Ryan. In this scenario recently signed Gardner Minshew might receive the majority of the snaps during Richardson’s first year in the big league, although some scouts have opined that the Florida product would be better served by learning on the job rather than sitting and learning for a season.

5. Seattle Seahawks – Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia

Once considered a potential first overall pick, Carter’s off-field issues have seen his stock fall to the point where some are beginning to wonder if he’ll be selected within the top ten of the draft. Seattle, however, have never been shy of taking risks on character under head coach Pete Carroll and from a purely on-field perspective they’d be landing a genuinely elite prospect who spent his college career living in the opposing backfield. Physically gifted with speed and strength, Carter stood out alongside a host of future first round teammates on the Bulldog’s defensive line, including 2022 top 15 pick Jordan Davis.

6. Detroit Lions – Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon

Detroit were already light on the outside before they traded away former third overall pick Jeff Okudah, putting them firmly in play to draft one of the top cornerbacks in this year’s class. Gonzalez comes from a long line of athletes, including his father and two older sisters, and based on his 4.38 40 yard dash time at the combine it appears those traits most certainly run in the family. Gonzalez was first team All-Pac-12 in 2022, showing a nose for the ball with four interceptions and seven pass break ups, demonstrating his skill as well as his raw physical gifts. Following their disastrous defensive showing last year, head coach Dan Campbell would be ecstatic to add a potential star corner to the Lions secondary.

7. Las Vegas Raiders – Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois (pick made by Tymal Mills)

“The Raiders signed Jimmy G to a three year deal this off-season, however in reality the structure makes it a two year deal with an out after just one season. This means QB is definitely in play, and although Will Levis is available in this scenario the Raiders pass to select highly rated cornerback Devon Witherspoon. The Las Vegas defence as a whole has been a sieve for far too long, and in a division with Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and the ghost of Russell Wilson you’re always going to need a strong corner room.”

8. Atlanta Falcons – Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech

Much like most of the teams picking in the top ten, Atlanta has a range of needs to fill and should be well positioned to take the best player available. Edge defender Wilson, a tall athletic end at 6 foot 5, certainly fits the bill, although he’s a bit of an enigma as a soon to be 23 year old “project” who totalled a combined 14 sacks during his junior and senior seasons at college. Nonetheless, the Falcons have a huge pass rushing need and with the team apparently willing to give Desmond Ridder a prolonged crack at the starting quarterback role head coach Arthur Smith turns to defence and makes Wilson the first ever Texas Tech defensive player selected within the first 20 picks of an NFL draft. One other player to keep an eye out for at this spot is Texas running back Bijan Robinson, with the Falcons currently the bookies favourite to select the uber talented rusher, in spite of the well documented pitfalls of choosing an RB this high in the first round.

9. Chicago Bears – Peter Skoronski, OL, Northwestern

Chicago made a shrewd deal with Carolina to drop back from number one to nine, in the process adding valuable draft capital as well as wide receiver D.J Moore. Skoronski addresses a high profile need on the offensive line, helping to continue the reshaping of an underperforming offence and giving quarterback Justin Fields more chance of remaining upright in 2023 than he did in 2022, when the Bears gave up 58 sacks which was “good” for fourth in the league. Skoronski himself might struggle to play tackle in the NFL due to his below average height and arm length for the position, however even if he kicks inside to guard he offers the upside of someone like Cowboys all-pro Zach Martin.

10. Philadelphia Eagles – Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State

Offensive lineman go back to back in this exercise, with the Eagles fortifying a strength with the addition of the exciting Johnson Jr. The Ohio State tackle stands a tall 6 foot 6 and would project as Lane Johnson’s long term replacement at right tackle, while offering the potential to start immediately at the right guard spot vacated by Isaac Seumalo. Philly is actually quite light in terms of offensive line depth after losing Andre Dillard in free agency in addition to Seumalo, and with $255m recently invested in Jalen Hurts it would be prudent to reinforce their protection of the newly minted face of the franchise.

11. Tennessee Titans – Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson

The Titans represent something of an inflection point in the draft, as they could go in a number of different directions including quarterback. They appear to be a team who are regressing, with Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry ageing and the rest of the team devoid of elite talent. Receiver is in play as Tennessee bid to replace A.J Brown, who was traded to Philadelphia during the draft last year, while the defence could also use reinforcements at almost every position. This pick represents something of a “best player available” approach, with Murphy possessing the size and versatility that teams covet, although he does come with some rawness that’ll need to be refined by whichever team lands him.

12. Houston Texans – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State

After selecting Stroud earlier in the process, Houston gives the Ohio State passer his former teammate in a bid to help him acclimatise to the professional game. Receiver was already a need for the Texans before they traded Brandin Cooks to the Dallas Cowboys last month, and Smith-Njigba is almost universally considered the top prospect at the position in this class. Realistically, the Texans could go in a number of directions at 12, with Bijan Robinson in play as well as one of the top remaining defensive prospects. Smith-Njigba suffered from injury in 2022, however dialling the clock back to 2021 he produced a sensational 1,606 yards on 95 catches for the Buckeyes, dominating targets even in a passing attack containing future NFL stars Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave.

13. Green Bay Packers – Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia

Following the Aaron Rodgers trade with the Jets, Green Bay moved up two spots (and picked up a second round pick plus a potential 2024 first rounder), leapfrogging the New England Patriots in the process. The Packers find themselves in a spot here where a couple of highly rated edge rushers remain, seeing them pick up another Georgia defender in Smith, a dynamic talent who racked up three sacks before injury ended his season after eight games and the Bulldogs eventually captured the National Championship. Another position to keep an eye on is tight end following the departure of Robert Tonyan, with both Dalton Kincaid and Michael Mayer in the mix.

14. New England Patriots – Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa

It’s anyones guess what Bill Belichick is up to these days in New England, but we know he likes defence and we know the Patriots would love to add a third edge defender behind Matthew Judon and Josh Uche. Van Ness didn’t actually start during his time at Iowa, however he still managed to rack up 13.5 sacks over the past two seasons and possesses the positional versatility that Belichick loves. New England could be a dark horse for a quarterback if they can move Mac Jones, but that prediction is a bridge too far for this mock which instead sees BB fortify the strength of the post-Tom Brady Patriots, it’s fierce defence.

15. New York Jets – Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia

Having made the trade for Rodgers, New York continues to build around him and adds Jones to an offensive line that was looking a little too reliant on the injury prone Mekhi Becton going into next season. Having already signed former Packers receiver Alan Lazard and with Breece Hall on the mend following torn knee ligaments, the offence is poised to improve on it’s 26th placed ranking, by DVOA, in 2022. Jones started all 15 Georgia games last season at left tackle, displaying championship pedigree at a premium position.

16. Washington Commanders – Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State

The son of former NFL standout and Pittsburgh Steelers great Joey Porter, the Penn State corner has great size for a cornerback but comes with well documented concerns about his “handsy” play style that often results in penalties. Washington has a clear need at corner after giving up a number of big plays in 2022, with top corner Kendall Fuller not up to the task of covering the likes of A.J Brown and CeeDee Lamb, both of who reside within the NFC East. Keep an eye on quarterback here, if one falls as it has in this mock, with Will Levis still on the board. However, head coach Ron Rivera has been steadfast in his support of second year signal caller Sam Howell, who appears primed for an audition as the Commanders quarterback of the future.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers – Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee

After Jones there’s a bit of a tier drop among the tackles in this class, nonetheless Wright is universally considered a first round talent after starring at right tackle for Tennessee. Pittsburgh has some nice pieces on offence, including second year quarterback Kenny Pickett and receivers George Pickens and Diontae Johnson, but really lacks talent on the offensive line and are a natural fit for a tackle at the midpoint of the first round. Wright is considered a better run blocker than pass protector at this stage of his young career; that might not be the worst thing with the Steelers looking to get Najee Harris and the ground game back on track after a disappointing season in 2022.

18. Detroit Lions – Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame

After addressing the defensive secondary with the sixth pick, Detroit turns their attention to the offensive side of the ball and lands the top tight end prospect in the class in Mayer. Having moved T.J Hockenson to the Vikings at the trade deadline there’s a clear need at the position for the Lions, and Mayer is ranked very highly by draft analysts who love both his receiving and blocking ability. With last years first rounder Jameson Williams suspended for six games this season Detroit could stand to give Jared Goff, who they supposedly remain high on, another weapon in the passing game as they attempt to breakthrough and make the post-season in 2023.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Will Levis, QB, Kentucky

The strong armed Levis may well end up going higher than this on draft night, as he appears to be a polarising prospect due to his elite arm strength and size, despite throwing a large number of interceptions (25 over the past two years) that could put some teams off. However once the top ten has been and gone the number of quarterback needy teams begins to dwindle; Washington make sense as a fit, as do perhaps the Titans, Patriots or Lions if they move on from their incumbent starters. Tampa Bay meanwhile definitely needs to replace theirs, with Tom Brady retired for good and Baker Mayfield the projected starter. With their receiving core and strong defence Levis would step into a good situation and if he can iron out the kinks in his game would be well placed to outperform the other QB’s chosen in round one.

20. Seattle Seahawks – Jordan Addison, WR, USC

Addison is an undersized yet productive receiver who started his college career at Pitt before transferring to Pac-12 powerhouse USC for his junior season. As a sophomore, Addison racked up an incredible 100 catches, 17 of which went for touchdowns, and 1,593 yards. However, standing just 5 foot 11 and 173lbs Addison will mainly make his living in the slot in the NFL; not that that’s necessarily a bad thing if he can replicate that production in the pros. Seattle has struggled for a third option in the passing game for a while now alongside D.K Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, and with Lockett turning 31 in September they also have a long term need at the position.

21. Los Angeles Chargers – Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah

Compared by some to Chiefs future Hall of Fame tight end Travis Kelce, Kincaid is a size and speed monster at the position who comes with the caveat of a back injury that could give teams pause as they weigh up the risks associated with drafting the Utah product. The Chargers have a need at the position and it’s about time they invested some more resources in helping Justin Herbert on the offensive side of the ball, especially with rumours swirling around the future of running back Austin Ekeler. Speaking of running back, don’t be surprised to see Bijan Robinson come under consideration here if Los Angeles are able to secure a package they’re happy with for Ekeler, who amassed 18 touchdowns in 2022 but turns 28 next month.

22. Baltimore Ravens – Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU

Johnston separates himself from the majority of receivers in this class due to his large frame and ability to play outside, although he lacks refinement with his route running and isn’t as polished as some of the other wideouts who are likely to go in the first two rounds. Johnston topped 1,000 yards for the Horned Frogs (one of the better college team nicknames) and helped the team reach the National Championship game. Baltimore recently added Odell Beckham Jr., however Beckham and fellow receiver Rashod Bateman both come with injury concerns and if the Ravens are to kiss and make up with star quarterback Lamar Jackson they’d be wise to continue to stockpile the offence with weapons for the dual threat former MVP.

23. Minnesota Vikings – Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee

Minnesota finally takes the plunge and drafts the eventual heir to Kirk Cousins following years of mediocrity at the quarterback position, although they’ll have to wait a while to see the results as Hooker recovers from an ACL tear that will likely rule him out for the start of the 2023 season. In this scenario Hooker lands in an ideal spot, as the Vikings can let Cousins continue under centre while the Vols QB rehabs and learns the playbook. When he does eventually take the reins he’ll have all-pro receiver Justin Jefferson to throw to, giving Hooker even more of a soft landing into the harsh world of the NFL.

24. Jacksonville Jaguars – Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson

The suddenly ascending Jaguars pick up Bresee to bolster their defensive front a they attempt to repeat as AFC South champions in 2023. With the offensive side of the ball taken care of, perhaps sans offensive line, they grab another player who comes with heaps of talent and medical concerns, with Bresee suffering both a torn ACL and a significant shoulder injury in college. The Clemson defensive tackle is only 21 as a redshirt sophomore, however whoever drafts him will be relying on a certain element of projection due to his spotty college record, which features just nine sacks in three seasons.

25. New York Giants – Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland

While New York could feasibly go wide receiver here, with Smith-Njigba, Addison and Johnston off the board they instead pivot to one of the last top tier corners available in Banks. The Giants never replaced James Bradberry after releasing him last off-season and Banks would fill that void for the immediate and foreseeable future. Banks possesses good size and athleticism, with his length making him a likely first round pick for a team who needs help on the outside. New York certainly fit the bill and would be delighted if he makes it all the way down to them at 25.

26. Dallas Cowboys – Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas

Finally, we’ve found a suitor for Texas stud running back Bijan Robinson, and wouldn’t you know it’s Jerry Jones who can’t help himself and pulls the trigger. Robinson is unanimously a top five overall prospect in the draft, yet in recent years NFL teams have become wise to the prospect of drafting a running back in the top ten only to see their star fade as injuries take their toll following a few years in the league. With Ezekiel Elliott no longer in Dallas and head coach Mike McCarthy committed to a more rushing orientated offence, the Cowboys pair Robinson with Tony Pollard in what immediately becomes the best backfield in the league. It might not last forever, but it’ll be a nightmare for opposing defences while it does.

27. Buffalo Bills – Brian Branch, S, Alabama

The BB’s draft BB, the consensus number one safety in the class, and fill a position of need with a high value choice at the tail end of the first round. Branch possesses safety/nickel versatility, and while he doesn’t have elite traits he projects as a relatively “safe” pick and likely above average starter in the NFL. Buffalo’s secondary struggled at times last season, notably in the playoffs against Miami and Cincinnati, and with defensive minded head coach Sean McDermott pulling the strings selecting Branch makes plenty of sense if he’s available at this slot.

28. Cincinnati Bengals – Calijah Kancey, DT, Pitt

Once upon a time Aaron Donald was an undersized defensive tackle from Pitt drafted in the first round. Will Kancey have the same impact in the NFL as Donald? Almost certainly not. However he can still make a big difference for a team that requires pass rushing juice on the inside, although he projects more as a rotational piece to begin with due to his lack of stature (Kancey weighs just 281lbs). At this stage of the first round with the cupboard fairly bare drafting for talent rather than need tends to become the norm, which makes sense when you consider the calibre of teams who have earned the right to pick in the late twenties and early thirties.

29. New Orleans Saints – Will McDonald IV, EDGE, Iowa State

The Saints find themselves picking at 29 following their trade with Denver for the rights to new Broncos head coach Sean Payton, using the choice to replace Marcus Davenport who bolted for Minnesota in free agency. Another team with a head coach who made his name on the defensive side of the ball, in this case Dennis Allen, New Orleans finds themselves too low down the board to land a top tier quarterback or offensive lineman, and without a second round selection next year (traded to Philadelphia in a draft pick swap last year) without the ammunition to manoeuvre their way up. McDonald is regarded as somewhat of a project by scouts, raw and weak in the run game but with the upside of an impact pass rusher if he can develop his skills in the right environment.

30. Philadelphia Eagles – BJ Ojulari, EDGE, LSU

The younger brother of New York Giants defensive lineman Azeez, Ojulari is another bendy edge rusher who would function best in a defence that doesn’t rely on him to play all three downs early in his NFL career. Philly would be an ideal fit with its strong, yet ageing, defensive front, whom Ojulari can rotate with before ideally assuming a leading role down the line. Look for the Eagles to try and trade out of this spot and acquire more mid round picks, as following their round three selection they don’t pick again until the seventh round.

31. Kansas City Chiefs – Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College

It almost feels unfair giving Patrick Mahomes help, however it’s worth remembering that Kansas City never really replaced Tyreek Hill last summer and have lost Mecole Hardman and JuJu Smith-Schuster this off-season. Add in Travis Kelce’s age and it’s probably time Andy Reid began to develop a Chiefs passing attack with some fresh blood to keep the KC train rolling. Flowers is yet another undersized receiver, there’s a theme in this class, who profiles well in the slot, but if anyone can get the most out of him and put him in a position to succeed it’s offensive genius Reid.

Do you disagree with any of my selections? Let me know your predictions in the comments or on Twitter @fredjstanley

A Phillies playoff run for the ages: Sweet, bitter and above all unforgettable

The Philadelphia Phillies were never supposed to play in the 2022 World Series. The sixth seed in the National League, in the first year the postseason has welcomed a sixth team into the October dance, the 87 win Phils won 14 fewer games than the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets.. from the same division. They took down the 93 win NL Central champion St. Louis Cardinals in the Wild Card round. They defeated the Braves, 3 games to 1, in the Division Series. They eased past the San Diego Padres in an electrifying Championship Series. It was a journey that started on October 7th and ended nearly one month later on November 5th. It included a string of moments that’ll live forever in the memory of Philadelphia sports fans, young and old, who saw playoff baseball return to the city for the first time since 2011, and undoubtably will lead in increased interest in the team heading into 2023 and beyond. Unquestionably, the season was a success.

And yet.

What if Rob Thomson didn’t prematurely remove his ace, Zach Wheeler, in game six?

What if Kyle Schwarber’s moonshot in game two didn’t leak six inches foul?

What if Chas McCormick didn’t turn into Willie Mays and rob a J.T Realmuto liner in game five?

Rewind to November 1. Phillies 7, Astros 0. A three games to two series lead. Two games still to come at Citizens Bank, where the Fightins’ were undefeated in the postseason. What ensued was a resounding thud.

Three games and four days later the series was over. The Phillies mustered just three runs in those games, two of which came courtesy of Schwarber home runs. They committed two basic errors. They struck out 38 (!) times. They were no hit (!!). It wasn’t so much a collapse as a total disappearance from the biggest stage in the game, from a position of genuine strength against the big, bad Houston Astros. Getting to that situation in the first place was an incredible achievement, a vindication of Thomson’s leadership and the roster building acumen of veteran executive Dave Dombrowski. However no roster is ever perfect, and more so than most Philadelphia had a number of flaws that, sooner or later, would rear their ugly head. The lineup had a lot of swing and miss in it, as evidenced by a World Series record number of K’s. Fielding was, to put it mildly, an adventure with DH-types playing both the infield and outfield corners. The pitching was good at the top, very good in fact, but it was shallow. Thomson’s most trusted arms, Jose Alvarado and Seranthony Dominguez, ran out of gas and their eventual demise came to pass at the most crucial junctures of the biggest games in their lives. Aaron Nola didn’t have it in his two World Series starts, getting shelled for eight runs in 8.1 innings, both team losses.

Despite all that, the Phillies still could have tilted the series in their favour if just a couple of key moments had gone their way. In game five they halved a two run deficit in the eighth inning on Jean Segura’s opposite field single, putting runners at the corners with one out. Brandon Marsh, the nine hitter, struck out on three pitches before Schwarber belted a laser right at first baseman Trey Mancini. Mancini stabbed the ball without flinching, the ball destined for his glove despite it leaving the bat at over 100 miles per hour. A foot either side and two runs would have scored, giving the Phillies a one run lead entering the ninth. The opportunity, fleeting as it was, had passed, and further agony would ensue in the bottom of the ninth when Realmuto’s drive to the right centre gap was chased down by McCormick with a level of anticipation and skill that just wasn’t on show when Philadelphia were in the field. When a play needed to be made the Astros made it, the Phillies did not and the series slipped painfully from their grasp.

It looked for a time in game six as though Wheeler might will the team to a game seven, carrying them on his back by firing a series of 98 and 99mph rockets. He mowed through the order twice, before hitting catcher Martìn Maldonado and giving up a softly hit single to eventual series MVP Jeremy Peña, putting runners on first and third. It was just the third hit Wheeler had allowed, which made it all the more jarring when Thomson emerged from the dugout and turned to Alvarado to face lefty Yordan Alvarez. I don’t need to repeat what happened next, it’ll be a long time before any Phillies fan wilfully rewatches that at bat, but the end result was Alvarado leaving the game with the score 4-1 to Houston and his postseason ERA inflated to 5.56. In four World Series appearances he hit two batsman, allowed four hits and also walked a hitter in just 3.1 innings. Wheeler was left to stew in the dugout after just 70 pitches, the game and series gone in one beautifully brutal swing of the bat.

All of this begs the question: was 2022 the ride of a lifetime for Phillies fans, or a missed opportunity ? It’s a nuanced question, of course, one that can’t accurately be answered until the dust has settled on the next era of Phillies baseball and the careers of the players and staff involved are firmly in the rear view mirror. The franchise has been playing since 1883 and has reached just eight World Series; for those wondering that’s one every 17 seasons. Should they not make it back to baseball’s showpiece event until 2039 then the pain of defeats in games four, five and six will linger. However, Bryce Harper and company will have an immediate chance to bounce right back with a roster that should be largely unchanged next year, although there will inevitably be alterations. Hoskins, for so long the face of an underachieving lineup, delivered a handful of memorable home run blasts in the Divisional and Championship rounds, but saw his bat go ice cold in the World Series in addition to misplaying numerous balls in the field. His fate is undetermined; Dombrowski could decide to shop Hoskins in the hope of bringing back a younger, cheaper hitter who possesses more ability with the glove, with the trade off being a loss of right handed power in a left leaning lineup.

One side effect of playing into November is the lack of time before the offseason kicks into gear, with players across the league making decisions on contract options already. Indeed, starter cum reliever Zach Eflin has already declined his $15 million player option and Dombrowski will have little time before he decides how he’ll address the starting rotation behind Aaron Nola, Wheeler and Ranger Suarez. The prospect pipeline looks promising, from a pitching perspective at least, and with a Major League leading $163 million already committed to the roster for 2023 the GM will have to quickly figure out where his priorities lie in terms of upgrading some of the problem spots that contributed to both a slow start and finish to the 2022 campaign. One player who isn’t going anywhere is right fielder/designated hitter Nick Castellanos, who has four years and $80 million remaining on the free agent contract he signed when the owners lockout ended in April. The slugger registered a career worst .694 OPS during the regular season and had just four extra base hits (all doubles) in 15 postseason contests. If the former Cincinnati Red doesn’t bounce back his contract will hang like dark cloud over the roster and Thomson will have to answer incessant questions about his place in the batting order.

The 2019 Washington Nationals might act as a cautionary tale to these Phillies, on windows of opportunity and fleeting visions of immortality. Those Nationals, like the 2022 Phillies, snuck into the postseason as a Wild Card, and like the Phillies started the season poorly. Yet they took their chances, defeated the vaunted Los Angeles Dodgers and Astros en route to a first title in franchise history. Three years later, their stars have left, the cupboard is bare and they’re coming off a Major League worst 107 loss season. Nothing is guaranteed in baseball and opportunities to win don’t come around very often. Nonetheless, whichever path the franchise takes over the coming days and months they’ll always have 2022. Hoskins’ bat spike. The swing of Harper’s life. The Segura Game. Seranthony’s six out save. All the Schwarbombs. And yet..

Have something to say on the 2022 Phillies and the World Series? You can follow me on Twitter @fredjstanley

2022 NFL Mock Draft

Pitt QB Kenny Pickett is in the discussion to be the first passer selected in the 2022 NFL Draft

It’s that time of year again where the NFL congregates to select the best talent available from the collegiate ranks, while fans and pundits alike make what ultimately prove to be fruitless predictions about their landing spots. As per usual, my uninformed opinions are outlined below and while they may not be accurate hopefully there are a couple of insightful snippets that’ll make following the action on Thursday night a little bit easier. Without further ado, scroll down to find out how I think each of the first 32 picks will unfold in Las Vegas.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars – Aidan Hutchinson, Edge, Michigan

With the first overall pick for the second consecutive year, Jacksonville takes the opportunity to add Hutchinson to their pass rush. The Michigan man is regarded by most evaluators as a “safe” rather than “can’t-miss” prospect, yet with left tackle Cam Robinson once again franchise tagged the chances of the Jaguars adding an offensive lineman have fallen, although that remains a possibility for a franchise that has needs all over the roster. In other years Jacksonville might have looked to move down, however with no elite quarterback prospect in this class it’s unlikely anyone would pay a premium to move up to the top spot.

2. Detroit Lions – Travon Walker, Edge, Georgia

After drafting Penei Sewell in the first round of the 2021 draft Detroit are in a position where they can focus on defence and build the team in the image of head coach Dan Campbell. Walker starred for a dominant Georgia defensive line last fall and has seen his stock rise throughout the pre-draft process, culminating in this scenario with him being the second name called on Thursday night. Armed with a second pick in the first round the Lions can circle back and pick their quarterback of the future later on without having to reach this high up the board.

3. Houston Texans – Evan Neal, Tackle, Alabama

It’d be easier to list the positions where Houston don’t need help as opposed to the ones they do; in fact, there probably isn’t a single position the Texans wouldn’t draft at this spot due to the dearth of talent on their roster. As a result this mock has them adding a polished player at a premium position in Neal, who enjoyed a solid career at SEC powerhouse Alabama and projects as a day one starter wherever he lands. There have been rumours the Texans might move on from Laremy Tunsil, however even if that doesn’t come to fruition Houston can ensure they give incumbent QB Davis Mills every chance of success by providing him with two strong tackles on the offensive line. Another team with two first round picks, the Texans can now finally begin their rebuild without the cloud of disgraced quarterback Deshaun Watson hanging over the franchise.

4. New York Jets – Kayvon Thibodeaux, Edge, Oregon

Halfway through the college season Thibodeaux was considered the consensus top overall selection, however as the year wore on and the pre-draft process unfolded he saw his stock fall due to questions about his desire and vague character concerns from evaluators. Nonetheless, the Oregon pass rusher possesses many of the traits scouts look for when it comes to getting to the quarterback and Jets head coach Robert Saleh would be delighted to add a premium talent to his underwhelming defensive line as he begins year two of his tenure in New York.

5. New York Giants – Ikem Ekwonu, Tackle, NC State

Many draftniks have pegged Ekwonu as the tackle with the highest ceiling in the class and with a long term need at the position the Giants would love to see him fall and shore up a position that has held back their offence in recent seasons. Although they selected Andrew Thomas two years ago he hasn’t lived up to expectations and at such an important position the new New York hierarchy won’t hesitate to pull the trigger and give Daniel Jones the beginnings of a competent offensive line.

6. Carolina Panthers – Kenny Pickett, Quarterback, Pitt

While it’s not a vintage QB class, at least on paper, that might not be enough to stop Carolina from being the first team to select one in the first round. Sam Darnold proved not to be the answer in 2021 and head coach Matt Rhule is surely on a seat that is somewhere between lukewarm and hot. Pickett enjoyed a fantastic season for Pitt, throwing 42 touchdowns to just seven interceptions, yet his measurables fail to jump off the page and his small hands are a cause for concern for a number of teams. It’ll be fascinating to see how his career pans out at the pro level, but for Rhule’s sake it’d better be on the right side of mediocre.

7. New York Giants – Ahmad Gardner, Cornerback, Cincinnati

Should the draft fall this way New York and their incoming head coach Brian Daboll will be delighted to walk away with a first-round haul of Ekwonu and promising cornerback “Sauce” Gardner. Gardner has been a darling of the pre-draft process and scouts think he has the ability to lock down receivers in man coverage at the next level and with the Giants in somewhat of a rebuilding mode they’ll be pleased to secure a premier talent at an important position, all thanks to the draft day trade they made last April with Chicago when the Bears moved up for Justin Fields.

8. Atlanta Falcons – Malik Willis, Quarterback, Liberty

Another quarterback in the top ten! Atlanta recently traded long-time QB Matt Ryan to the Colts and while they brought Marcus Mariota in to hold down the fort there’s no doubt that the Falcons will be in the market for a long-term answer at the position. Willis has a huge arm and outstanding rushing ability, however he’s incredibly raw and lacks ideal size for the position. While he has a better arm than Jalen Hurts some scouts have likened many of his other skills to the Eagles quarterback, making the Liberty product something of a projection in the NFL. Nonetheless, with a year sitting behind Mariota and with the potential return of Calvin Ridley in 2023, this is the sort of situation that could benefit Willis and give him the best chance to succeed, if handled correctly.

9. Seattle Seahawks – Charles Cross, Tackle, Mississippi State

Should Pickett or Willis fall this far there’s a reasonable chance Seattle could pull the trigger on one of the two signal callers. However, in this mock with both off the board the Seahawks opt to take the rising Cross in an effort to bolster their offensive line, which has been a weakness for most of the past decade. Seattle coach Pete Carroll may refuse to acknowledge it, but his team are in the midst of a rebuild and absent a star quarterback their best path back to relevance is by taking the best player available, something Cross can lay somewhat of a claim to at this point of the draft.

10. New York Jets – Kyle Hamilton, Safety, Notre Dame

Hamilton is widely regarded as one of the top three or four prospects in the class. The big question isn’t how talented the Notre Dame product is; it’s how high should a safety go in the modern NFL. Hamilton clocked a disappointing 4.7 in the 40-yard dash at his pro day, however his speed on tape looks more than adequate and some scouts have compared him to a bigger Derwin James, who when healthy is one of the best players at his position in the league. Jets coach Saleh would be absolutely thrilled to come away from the first round with Hamilton and Thibodeaux, bolstering the New York D both up front and on the back end.

11. Washington Commanders – Garrett Wilson, Wide Receiver, Ohio State

The first receiver of the draft goes off the board to the newly renamed Commanders, with Wilson giving Terry McLaurin a running mate out wide and Carson Wentz a legitimate second option in the passing game. Wilson is considered a highly polished prospect with no weaknesses to his game and comes from a loaded Ohio State receiver core which also featured Chris Olave, who you’ll hear more about later.

12. Minnesota Vikings – Derek Stingley, Cornerback, LSU

Stingley is one of the more interesting prospects in this class, with opinion divided on the LSU corner who burst onto the scene in 2019 as a true freshman when he helped the Tigers win a National Championship. Stingley was incredible that season and practice tape shows him locking down Ja’Marr Chase, however in the two subsequent years he’s struggled for form and has had injury issues. 2019 Stingley is probably a top two or three pick; the more recent version comes with far more uncertainty but it’s a risk that someone is likely to take in the top half of the first round.

13. Houston Texans – Jermaine Johnson, Edge, Florida State

After adding Evan Neal to the offensive line at three overall Houston comes back around ten picks later and gives their pass rush some added juice with Jermaine Johnson, a player widely considered the third best pass rusher in the draft following Hutchinson and Thibodeaux. Johnson transferred to Florida State from Georgia and finished 2021 with 12 sacks. The Texans need help all over the field and Johnson would certainly help add to the overall talent pool within the organisation.

14. Baltimore Ravens – Jordan Davis, Defensive Tackle, Georgia

Combine star Davis was another part of the star-studded Georgia defence last season and possesses incredibly high upside due to his physical traits, which were on show when he ran a 4.78 40-yard dash at a mammoth 341 pounds. Davis also produced at the collegiate level, although there are some concerns about the fact he didn’t remain on the field at all times and was allowed plenty of rest due to rotation. If he can make the jump to a more full-time role Davis might end up being one of the top players in the class.

15. Philadelphia Eagles – Jameson Williams, Wide Receiver, Alabama

Had Williams not torn his ACL in January he’d almost certainly have been selected in the top ten of the draft, however with the Alabama speedster unlikely to be available for more than half of the 2022 season it’ll be interesting to see which team is willing to select him and play the waiting game while he recovers. The Eagles have taken a receiver in the first round two years in a row, but that shouldn’t stop them adding to their options out wide due to the poor performance of Jalen Reagor, who could be shopped over draft weekend.

16. New Orleans Saints – George Karlaftis, Edge, Purdue

New Orleans traded up with Philadelphia to acquire an extra first round pick in 2022, which could indicate they’re looking to make a move for a quarterback to eventually take over from Jameis Winston. However, with both Willis and Pickett off the board inside the top ten they may have to settle for an impact pass rusher, something they did in 2018 when they traded up for Marcus Davenport (while Lamar Jackson was notably still on the board). That move didn’t work out, but with precedent set this mock has them repeating the trick for Karlaftis and bolstering their pass rush as they attempt to keep pace with Tampa Bay in the NFC South.

17. Los Angeles Chargers – Trent McDuffie, Cornerback, Washington

Despite already adding J.C Jackson to the position in free agency the Chargers could well select another cornerback in the draft, especially given the passing game talent that currently exists in the AFC West. When defending Patrick Mahomes, Derek Carr and Russell Wilson six times a season it’s prudent to have players who can cover and McDuffie comes highly recommended by draftniks who admire his feisty and competitive nature. One knock on the Washington corner are his short arms, however even in a worst-case scenario McDuffie should excel in the slot and possesses the upside of a lockdown player at a valued position.

18. Philadelphia Eagles – Dax Hill, Safety, Michigan

After addressing the offence with Williams Philly circles back in this scenario and adds some much-needed quality to the defensive secondary in the form of Michigan’s Hill. Rodney McLeod left in free agency and returning starter Anthony Harris is 31, meaning Hill both addresses a short and long term need for the Eagles. Hill has safety/corner versatility, giving defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon a versatile option who he can employ in a number of ways to help improve a defence that struggled for large spells of the 2021 season.

19. New Orleans Saints – Trevor Penning, Tackle, Iowa

Continuing the theme of teams making their second pick of the first round, the Saints find their Terron Armstead replacement in Iowa’s Penning. Penning tested well at the combine and possesses prototypical size for the position, measuring six feet seven inches and gained experience at both tackle and guard during his college tenure.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers – Desmond Ridder, Quarterback, Cincinnati

The Athletic’s Nate Tice is a huge Ridder fan and has him ranked as his number one quarterback, demonstrating that the Cincinnati QB has his admirers among the scouting community. Generally described as the most pro-ready of the available passers, Ridder would step into a solid situation in Pittsburgh with both Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool to throw to and his addition could instantly relegate Mitch Trubisky to backup duties.

21. New England Patriots – Andrew Booth, Cornerback, Clemson

Despite making the playoffs New England have plenty of holes they need to address. The most glaring is in the secondary after their Wild Card round mauling at the hands of Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills and with J.C Jackson now departed Bill Belichick will be keen to find his replacement in the form of Booth, an athletic corner from Clemson who could have a big role from day one in Foxborough.

22. Green Bay Packers – Chris Olave, Wide Receiver, Ohio State

Aaron Rodgers gets his Davante Adams replacement in Olave, a route running specialist from Ohio State who piled up impressive numbers alongside Garrett Wilson in silver and red. Olave lacks Adams’ elite YAC skills and lacks the elite athletic traits possessed by some of the other top receivers in the class, although Rodgers is unlikely to mind too much as long as he can get open and give him a reliable option alongside incumbent receivers Alan Lazard and Randall Cobb.

23. Arizona Cardinals – Devonte Wyatt, Defensive Tackle, Georgia

Wyatt is the third Georgia defensive lineman off the board in this mock, and there’s a case to be made that he was the most productive during his time in college. However Wyatt is slightly older than Travon Walker and Jordan Davis and comes with more off field baggage, which could see him slide into the second half of the first round on draft night. The Cardinals don’t have too many obvious holes, yet their defence needs more work than the offensive side of the ball and Wyatt would be a solid choice to bolster their front and solidify what was at times a leaky rushing defence in 2021.

24. Dallas Cowboys – Drake London, Wide Receiver, USC

USC product London has divided opinion in the lead up to Thursday night, with some pundits raving about his ability to win at the catch point while others have bemoaned his inability to gain separation from defenders. London certainly produced last season, averaging 113 yards per game and it’ll be interesting to see how he fares against NFL cornerbacks. Dallas released Amari Cooper in the off season and Michael Gallup is coming off a knee injury, so there’s certainly reason for Jerry Jones to add more firepower to his offence and London would represent a great compliment to CeeDee Lamb for Dak Prescott and co.

25. Buffalo Bills – David Ojabo, Edge, Michigan

Ojabo tore his achilles at his pro day a couple of months ago which saw him fall from certain first round pick to draft day wild card as teams assess when he’ll be available and how much of a full recovery he’ll make. A good comparison might be Sidney Jones, the Seahawks cornerback who suffered a similar injury in the build-up to the 2017 draft and was selected in the middle of the second round by Philadelphia. Ojabo plays a premium position and a team like Buffalo could afford to take a risk by selecting the Michigan star late in the first round, given the ability that already exists on their roster and the presence of recently signed Von Miller.

26. Tennessee Titans – Treylon Burks, Wide Receiver, Arkansas

Arkansas receiver Burks has drawn comparisons to Deebo Samuel due to his versatility and run after the catch skill, although some teams have concerns about his suitability as an every down wide receiver and some below par testing numbers during the combine in March. Many pundits say Burks has the largest range of possible outcomes among the most touted wide receivers and in this mock he goes probably as low as he’s likely to given the number of teams in the teens and twenties who need help on the outside. With Julio Jones out of Nashville after one season Burks would provide a nice compliment to A.J Brown.

27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Zion Johnson, Guard, Boston College

After returning all 22 starters following their Superbowl victory following the 2020 season Tampa has a few more holes to fill after an off season when Tom Brady retired, then unretired, and head coach Bruce Arians walked away from the NFL to be replaced by defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. Johnson is widely regarded the top pure guard prospect in the class and with Ali Marpet having retired the Bucs have a clear need at the position. Johnson would be a plug and play selection and one of the best fits, on paper, in this first round.

28. Green Bay Packers – Travis Jones, Defensive Tackle, Connecticut

The Packers have a proud and productive history of drafting the best player available, and after addressing their receiver need earlier they snap up Jones, a riser in the draft process who projects as more of a run stuffer than a pass rusher, hence his availability towards the back end of the first round.

29. Kansas City Chiefs – Jahan Dotson, Wide Receiver, Penn State

Kansas City use the first of their two back to back first round picks on Dotson, a slightly undersized receiver who topped 1,000 yards for Penn State last season and registered an impressive 13 touchdowns during the campaign. Dotson excels in the return game and is versatile enough to carry the ball on end arounds and reverses, something that’ll excite head coach Andy Reid and closely resembles the skillset of the man he’ll be replacing for the Chiefs, Tyreek Hill.

30. Kansas City Chiefs – Lewis Cine, Safety, Georgia

Following their Dotson selection KC jumps to the other side of the ball with Cine, who remarkably would be a fourth Georgia defender taken in the first thirty picks. It’d be unusual for three safeties to all be selected this high, however it’s an unusual class given the relative lack of QB talent, no standout running backs and no tight end worthy of first round consideration. With Tyrann Mathieu currently a free agent and unlikely to return to the Chiefs Cine makes perfect sense as a long-term replacement in a secondary that could use an infusion of youth and talent if Kansas City are to continue to compete for a Super Bowl berth each season.

31. Cincinnati Bengals – Nakobe Dean, Linebacker, Georgia

Another Georgia defender flies off the board as Cincinnati take the leader of the National Champions defence. Dean possesses strong athletic traits, notably his speed and acceleration, however he’s slightly undersized at 229 pounds which could hinder him at the next level. Nonetheless, the Bengals will be pleased to add a defensive cornerstone this late in the first round and focus on adding more offensive line depth in the latter rounds of the draft, having already addressed that weakness in free agency.

32. Detroit Lions – Sam Howell, Quarterback, North Carolina

One last surprise to round out the first round as the Lions begin to plan for life after Jared Goff with the final pick that comes with a fifth-year option, just as the Ravens did in 2018 with Lamar Jackson. Howell comes with question marks, including a lack of ideal size and mechanical questions around his throwing motion, nonetheless as tends to be the case quarterbacks can go higher than expected due to the importance of the position. With Goff in the building Howell can sit for a year while he hones his craft, eventually taking over in 2023 as their young core continues to develop.

What do you think will happen in the 2022 NFL Draft? Have your say in the comments or tweet @fredjstanley.

2021 NFL Mock Draft

Trevor Lawrence starred at Clemson before entering the 2021 NFL Draft

Another NFL season is in the books and each of the 32 franchises have turned their attention towards the future, which begins this Thursday with the annual college player draft. The Jacksonville Jaguars, by virtue of having the worst record in the league during the 2020 season, have the honour of making the first selection, as each team hopes to land a number of difference making players to help shape a brighter future in what will hopefully be a post-pandemic NFL landscape. Fewer players completed college seasons in 2020 which should make for more intrigue and higher variance in opinion among league scouts and decision makers, while the absence of the annual combine in Indianapolis this Spring has also negatively impacted the ability of teams to interact with prospective selections. Nonetheless, there are still some consensus top talents in this year’s player pool, not least Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence, and for the first time in league history quarterbacks may go first, second, third and fourth overall in the first round. Scroll down for my predictions spanning the first round of this year’s process, including the now traditional Las Vegas Raiders pick from guest contributor, Raiders supporter and England cricketer Tymal Mills.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevor Lawrence – QB, Clemson

Lawrence is perhaps the most heralded QB prospect to enter the league since Andrew Luck in 2012, with a rare combination of size, athleticism, arm strength and accuracy. In addition to possessing all the physical traits teams desire in a quarterback, Lawrence has also performed on the biggest stage for Clemson since he emerged as a true freshman to win a National Championship in 2019. With exemplary character and glowing references from anyone he’s ever played with or been coached by, Lawrence has been earmarked for the number one selection in this class for two years and Jacksonville have barely been able to contain their excitement at being able to remodel their waning franchise around the six foot six passer. There’s not much guesswork involved with this pick, just the chance to wax lyrical about Lawrence and the chance for the Jaguars to finally establish themselves as a successful NFL franchise.

2. New York Jets – Zach Wilson – QB, BYU

After trading Sam Darnold to Carolina a couple of weeks ago the Jets as good as confirmed they’d take Wilson number two overall, with the BYU thrower going from relative unknown to highly touted prospect in little over twelve months. Wilson demonstrates some of the skills that have made Patrick Mahomes the highest paid player in NFL history, including an ability to throw from different platforms and the agility to avoid the rush and make off script throws. Wilson had a fantastic pro day which some believe sealed the deal with New York, but he’ll have to be wary that he doesn’t falter due to some of the issues that plagued Darnold in the Big Apple, namely porous offensive line play and poor coaching. New head coach Robert Saleh should alleviate some of those concerns, and with a second first round pick at number 23 the Jets have an opportunity to give Wilson the help Darnold was never afforded. Regardless, the Wilson experience should be a fun one and this pick offers renewed hope for a franchise that has suffered throughout the 21st century and suddenly has an opportunity to compete in a post-Patriots dynasty iteration of the AFC East.

3. San Francisco 49ers – Trey Lance – QB, NDSU

This is where the 2021 draft really begins in earnest. San Francisco traded a kings ransom to move from 12 to three in the draft, almost certainly with a quarterback in mind, with pundits tabbing Alabama passer Mac Jones to the Niners. Jones is the bookies favourite to go three, however draftniks almost exclusively have Jones as a clear fifth best after Lawrence, Wilson, Lance and Ohio State’s Justin Fields in this class at the position. Jones is polished – he completed 77% of his passes in the 2020 college season, an NCAA record, however he lacks the elite physical tools of the other four quarterbacks and there are plenty of valid questions regarding how much of his success was the product of the talent around him (Jones’ receivers last year included first round prospects Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith while highly touted Najee Harris was his tailback). Jones could well succeed in the NFL, and by all accounts he has the intangibles to give it a hell of a good go, and San Francisco would be able to ease him into the league due to the presence of Jimmy Garoppolo, but Lance has an array of skills Jones does not and makes far more sense as the sort of prospect you’d mortgage the future to acquire. Lance possesses a rifle of an arm, elite mobility and size, yet it should be noted he also comes with the caveat that at North Dakota he rarely faced elite competition or indeed adversity in the second division of college ball. If Lance can indeed sit and learn behind Jimmy G and pick the brain of head coach Kyle Shanahan this pick could be a home run, and in terms of the draft as a whole the direction San Fran chooses to go with this pick will shape the rest of the top ten.

*TRADE*

4. Denver Broncos (via Atlanta) – Justin Fields – QB, Ohio State

The first trade of this mock sees QB needy Denver move up to grab Fields, the dual threat superstar from Ohio State who many observers feel is the 1b to Lawrence’s 1a in the 2021 class. To make the deal I have the Broncos giving up picks nine and 40, which according to Jimmy Johnson’s famous trade chart is a marginal 50 point differential (in favour of Atlanta). Atlanta could sit here and take a QB, however with Matt Ryan under contract for the next two years due to some insanely high cap hits it just doesn’t make sense to make the move at this stage in the modern win-now NFL landscape. The move down to nine would enable Atlanta to still grab one of the five top non-QB prospects in the draft, as well as a high second round pick which could be utilised to bolster a roster that actually isn’t as far away from being competitive as you might think. Fields is a tremendous athlete who carved up Clemson’s defence in the CFB Playoff semi-final and it’s common knowledge that John Elway loves size in his quarterbacks, something Fields (six foot three inches, 228 pounds) certainly has. Drew Lock isn’t the answer for the Broncos and this presents an opportunity for them to finally address the position which has been in flux since Peyton Manning retired after their victory in Superbowl 50.

5. Cincinnati Bengals – Ja’Marr Chase – WR, LSU

Should the Bengals draft top rated offensive tackle Penei Sewell? Probably. Will they? I’m not so sure. Chase is an unbelievable prospect, who despite sitting out of the 2020 season due to COVID concerns is ranked almost unanimously as the top wide receiver in the class. Chase put together a stellar 2019 season in combination with Bengals quarterback and 2019 number one overall pick Joe Burrow, and Cincinnati just can’t resist the urge to reunite them in this mock scenario. Although Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are already in house at the position Chase offers another level of weaponry to help Burrow find his feet in the NFL as he recovers from torn knee ligaments, however it remains to be seen how often he’ll remain upright behind a suspect offensive line and under the tutelage of head coach Zac Taylor, who is yet to convince during his first go around leading a franchise.

6. Miami Dolphins – Kyle Pitts – TE, Florida

Selecting a tight end in the top ten of the draft is almost always a fools errand. Recent picks made that high at the position include T.J Hockenson, Eric Ebron, Vernon Davis and Kellen Winslow Jr. It’s hard to argue that any of them were worth choosing so high, especially when you consider the other players on the board at the time the pick was made. However evaluators are salivating over the potential Pitts offers to a modern NFL offence due to his rare combination of size, speed, catching and route running ability. If Pitts can enter the league and immediately offer Tua Tagovailoa a safety blanket in the middle of the field (think Travis Kelce with the Chiefs) this pick will be a home run. That’s a lofty bar to set, which is the concern, and if Pitts is merely good as opposed to great, questions will be asked about the wisdom of following the same model that was applied when Hockenson and Ebron et al. were selected in the top ten. Just two tight ends ranked in the top 50 of the NFL in receiving yards in 2020, which could be read one of two ways. Perhaps you think talent at the position is thin and if you can grab a generational talent you have to take that chance and give yourself a unique advantage over the majority of the league. Or perhaps you punt on the position, try to pick someone up at the spot later on (George Kittle and Darren Waller were fifth and sixth round picks, after all) and turn your attention to the wide receiver spot where the vast majority of receiving production comes from regardless. I’d choose the latter, but if Pitts is a good as scouts think he is then it’s a risk someone is going to take this early in the process.

7. Detroit Lions – Jaylen Waddle – WR, Alabama

Detroit lost both Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr. in free agency, leaving two gaping holes on the outside as they look to remodel their roster under a new head coach and new front office management. Waddle fractured his ankle after four games of the 2020 season so he does come with some injury concerns, however his incredible speed and burst have general managers drooling over the possibilities he offers to a pro offence. Part of Alabama’s incredible stable of receivers over the past two years, including Henry Ruggs, DeVonta Smith and Jerry Jeudy, Waddle has drawn comparisons to Tyreek Hill and it isn’t hard to see why he could be the second receiver off the board in the 2021 draft. The Lions acquired Jared Goff in the Matthew Stafford trade so it seems unlikely that they’ll immediately undermine him by picking a quarterback this year, plus the fact that they’re armed with two future first round picks in 2022 and 2023 gives them the necessary firepower to move up either of the next two years to grab their long term answer under centre. That’s if their own poor performance doesn’t net them a top five choice in both years, of course. For now, Waddle would represent a fine choice as a building block for the next generation of Lions football.

8. Carolina Panthers – Penei Sewell – OT, Oregon

The Panthers seemingly conceded defeat in their bid to select one of the “fab four’ quarterback prospects in the class when they moved to acquire Sam Darnold from the Jets earlier this month, but Sewell is no mean consolation prize as he is universally considered a top ten lock and an elite offensive tackle prospect. If you believe in building along the lines then this is a no brainer pick for a team that actually contains a fairly solid base of offensive talent – Christian McCaffrey remains at running back and both Robby Anderson and D.J Moore are more than handy weapons on the outside. If Sam Darnold is to succeed he’ll need solidity on the offensive line and Sewell should help in that regard, and with the recent Orlando Brown trade the value of top tier offensive tackle play has never been more apparent; just ask Patrick Mahomes after he spent 60 minutes running for his life against the Buccaneers pass rush in February.

9. Atlanta Falcons (via Denver) – Patrick Surtain II – CB, Alabama

How about trading back, acquiring an extra second round pick and then selecting the best defensive player available in the draft? This would be an ideal scenario for Atlanta who have struggled to contain opposing offences for a number of years, and Surtain offers the potential upside of a number one corner in a passing league. One pro comparison for Surtain has been Ravens corner Marlon Humphrey, which would certainly suffice from the Falcons point of view, as Surtain is well known for his physicality, length and ability to play man press at the line of scrimmage. A shutdown corner is worth his weight in gold and Surtain certainly possesses the potential to make this a very tidy pick for a franchise that with a few lucky bounces could find itself back in competition for the top spot in the NFC South.

10. Dallas Cowboys – Rashawn Slater – OT, Northwestern

While Sewell began the pre-draft process as the unanimous number one offensive lineman on the board, Slater has actually made up a lot of ground on the Oregon product and offers genuine five position versatility for a Cowboys unit that has regressed alarmingly in the past twelve or so months. Travis Fredericks has retired, Tyron Smith has struggled to stay healthy and turns 31 during the 2021 season while all-pro guard Zach Martin missed six games through injury in 2020. Dallas haven’t been shy about addressing the offensive line through the draft in the past decade, and with Dak Prescott returning from a gruesome leg injury protecting their newly minted franchise QB will remain a priority for the franchise. Surtain would’ve been an attractive option if he’d remained on the board but with Atlanta grabbing him one pick before the Cowboys turn Slater makes for a logical and fine consolation prize.

11. New York Giants – Kwity Paye – DE, Michigan

New York could go in a number of different directions at pick 11, with the consensus “can’t miss” prospects off the board and some of the more marginal college athletes still left on the board. Paye would represent the first pass rusher selected from an unusually weak class at that position, with no Myles Garrett or Joey Bosa-type players available this year. Paye offers good measurables, however, and comes with the pedigree of having represented Michigan at the collegiate level. One concern for teams might be his lack of on field production, with Paye only registering two sacks during the 2020 season, but the Giants might see this as an opportunity to take their pick of the edge rushing class and fortify a defence that showed plenty of potential during Joe Judge’s first year as head coach. DeVonta Smith is another option here but with Kenny Golladay signed to a monster deal in free agency New York decides to leave the wide receiver position as it is, for now.

12. Philadelphia Eagles – DeVonta Smith – WR, Alabama

Smith is perhaps the most intriguing prospect in the class, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner who amassed an incredible 1,800 yards and 23 touchdowns during the 2020 season. However, weighing in at just 166 pounds his body type is traditionally unsuited to the physicality of the NFL, and for Smith to succeed he’ll have to buck a trend of smaller bodied wide receivers being unable to make the leap. Many scouts believe Marvin Harrison is the best case scenario for Smith, while at the other end of the scale he could be compared to someone like Tavon Austin, who was drafted eighth overall by the Rams back in 2013 and has never lived up to expectations in the league. The Eagles have a clear need at receiver despite spending high picks in recent years on Jalen Reagor and J.J Arcega-Whiteside, a damning indictment of their scouting and selection processes. Yet they shouldn’t let their past mistakes deter them from making what would be the “chalk” pick in this scenario, with cornerback Jaycee Horn the other possibility should the draft play out this way. General manager Howie Roseman loves to build through the lines but with Sewell and Slater gone there’s no offensive lineman worthy of a pick this high, while the edge rushing class is mediocre at best, as discussed above.

13. Los Angeles Chargers – Jaycee Horn – CB, South Carolina

Depending on who you read or listen to, Horn is either the best or second best corner prospect in this class along with Surtain. Son of former Saints wide receiver Joe Horn, the South Carolina product is long (six foot one inches tall) and possesses 33 inch arms, helping him make plays on the ball and lock down receivers using tight man coverage. One knock on Horn is his tendency to commit penalties; he was tagged with five in just seven games last season, but this pick is a nice marriage between talent and need for a Chargers secondary that couldn’t stop anyone in 2020. Offensive line could be another consideration here but after an active free agency period Los Angeles would do well to add a high upside piece to their defence and begin to turn things around on that side of the ball.

14. Minnesota Vikings – Christian Darrisaw – OT, Virginia Tech

Darrisaw heads the second tier of offensive linemen in the 2021 class, a three year starter who played himself into the first round conversation and has drawn praise for his toughness and competency holding down the fort at left tackle throughout his college career. Questions remain regarding his best position in the NFL, he could slide inside to guard, but that versatility could count in his favour for a Vikings team that has glaring needs on both lines. However it’s worth noting that Minnesota haven’t chosen a pass rusher in the first round since 2004, and if history is anything to go by the pick here could well be on the offensive side of the ball.

15. New England Patriots – Micah Parsons – LB, Penn State

New England has been touted as one of the more likely landing spots for whoever the fifth quarterback off the board may be, but with Mac Jones that particular player in this mock I’m not convinced he’s what Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels are after. There’s a good chance they can pick up Jimmy Garoppolo for next to nothing once San Francisco realises they have no trade leverage with the former Patriots QB, and Belichick is famed for his defensive background and ability to get the most out of players who come with character concerns (think Randy Moss, Rodney Harrison and Aqib Talib). Parsons is one such player, with exceptional physical traits and the potential to replicate the impact Devin White had in Tampa Bay, and should he fall to this spot it would be a perfect marriage between need and talent. From Teddy Bruschi to Jerod Mayo, Belichick’s best Patriots defences have always had star presence in the middle of the field and Parsons could be the latest in a long line of impact linebackers to play in Foxborough.

16. Arizona Cardinals – Caleb Farley – CB, Virginia Tech

Farley represents real boom or bust potential during the middle section of the first round, due to his recent back surgery (the second of his college career) which raise genuine concerns about his ability to play in the NFL beyond his first contract. Outside of the injuries, Farley was previously considered to be arguably the top corner in the class; many pundits pegged him as a top ten selection, so if he can recover adequately whoever picks him could land a real steal should he fall. Patrick Peterson is no longer a Cardinal which leaves a glaring hole at the position in Arizona, so if both Surtain and Horn are gone by this spot expect them to cast their eye towards either Farley or Greg Newsome II.

17. Las Vegas Raiders – Teven Jenkins – OL, Oklahoma State

The Raiders begun free agency by completely gutting their talented yet expensive offensive line by releasing or trading each of Trent Brown, Gabe Jackson, Rodney Hudson and Richie Incognito. Incognito was eventually brought back and new deals were handed to centre Andre James, left tackle Kolton Miller and right guard Denzel Good. A big hole remains, however, at right tackle which is where Tevin Jenkins slots nicely in after playing on the right side for Oklahoma State for the entirety of his college career.

Tymal Mills

*TRADE*

18. Indianapolis Colts (via Miami) – Alijah Vera-Tucker – OL, USC

The second and final trade of this mock sees the Colts leapfrog Washington to secure the top remaining offensive lineman on the board, USC left tackle Alijah Vera-Tucker. To make the deal Indy send a 2022 third round pick to Miami, while receiving a 2022 fifth rounder in return (roughly 70 points in favour of Miami according to Jimmy Johnson’s trade chart). Vera-Tucker was voted Pac-12 offensive lineman of the year this past year, and while most observers are in agreement that he won’t stick at tackle in the NFL he is widely acclaimed as the top guard in the class and gives the Colts a running mate on the interior alongside Quenton Nelson, or alternatively he could allow Indianapolis to move the all-pro outside to fill their left tackle vacancy. Either way, the move is made with Carson Wentz’s best interests in mind; Wentz has suffered his share of injuries in the NFL and keeping the former Eagle upright is a top priority for Frank Reich and co.

19. Washington Football Team – Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah – LB, Notre Dame

In this scenario Washington would be faced with a Mac Jones dilemma, but with Ryan Fitzpatrick signed to play quarterback in the American capital the need isn’t immediate and the Football Team might not be sold on the upside of the Alabama product. Owusu-Koramoah was first team all-american in 2020 and many believe he has similar playmaking instincts to Devin White, including an ability to line up across the defence (Owusu-Koramoah played some safety in college) and cover the field from sideline to sideline. Washington have a few holes to fill, and they could go with the Mac Jones option as mentioned above, but with no receiver worthy of the 19th overall pick they opt for the sensible solution; choosing the best player available and giving Ron Rivera’s defence a jolt as he heads into year two as coach of the Football Team.

20. Chicago Bears – Mac Jones – QB, Alabama

Speaking of Jones, it’s unlikely that he’ll his slide last beyond this pick, where the quarterback needy Bears reside. There’s a strong possibility Chicago could look to move up to secure the national champion, but in this mock Jones falls into their laps at their original draft spot. The Bears are in quarterback purgatory after they missed out on a trade deal to land Russell Wilson from the Seahawks, and after signing Andy Dalton they’re faced with a fairly uninspiring choice between the “Red Rifle” and former Superbowl LII MVP Nick Foles. Jones wouldn’t have to start right away given the presence of the aforementioned veterans, but if he were forced into duty in 2021 he’d be well equipped to succeed given his college pedigree and skillset, namely a strong pocket presence and an ability to progress quickly through his reads.

21. Miami Dolphins (via Indianapolis) – Jaelan Phillips – DE, Miami

This would be a great outcome for Miami, dropping back three spots to grab a player they would’ve likely drafted at 18 all while picking up an extra third rounder in 2022. Phillips has been a popular pick for the Dolphins in mock drafts this Spring, although like Caleb Farley he comes with a high degree of risk. Originally a recruit for UCLA, Phillips sustained a number of concussions and effectively retired from the sport before entering the transfer portal after a year away from the game and joining the Miami Hurricanes. It’s an unusual if not downright unique path to the pros, but with incredible pass rushing potential it’s difficult to see Phillips falling too far for a couple of reasons; one, there’s a lack of elite edge players in this draft class and two, the premium nature of the position. For the Dolphins it’s a worthwhile risk to take and would address a need on their defence which could yet exceed its 2020 performance in the upcoming campaign.

22. Tennessee Titans – Azeez Ojulari – DE, Georgia

Sniped by the Dolphins for Phillips, Tennessee instead pivots to Ojulari here in an effort to bolster a pass rush that struggled in 2020 with no thanks to pricey free agent signing Jadeveon Clowney, who has since departed. Head coach Mike Vrabel knows the team need to get better on that side of the ball in order to compete with the AFC heavyweights so the choice here could come down to edge rusher, cornerback Greg Newsome II or perhaps one of what is widely considered the second tier of wide receivers. NBC Sports Peter King has reported that some teams are concerned about the condition of Ojulari’s knees, however he’s in the conversation for top pass rusher in the entire class and as the old saying goes, it only takes one team. The Titans pass rush is in such dire need of juice at the position that they could be that very team.

23. New York Jets – Greg Newsome II – CB, Northwestern

Newsome II is the fourth cornerback likely to hear his name called on Thursday night, and for a Jets team that has needs everywhere he’d represent a very solid pick up in the final quarter of the first round. New York could go in multiple different directions, perhaps a receiver to help Zach Wilson bed in or an offensive lineman to protect him, but it’s worth remembering new head coach Robert Saleh has a defensive background and the Jets are hardly blessed with talent on that side of the ball. With another pick at the start of the second round the Jets can go defence here and address another of their many needs on day two of the process.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers – Landon Dickerson – OL, Alabama

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Dickerson enters the draft under the microscope due to a number of injuries sustained throughout his decorated college career. Scouts love him and absent any injury concerns he’d likely be drafted a fair bit higher than 24, yet with two torn ACL’s and two ankle surgeries on his resume Dickerson is the definition of boom or bust. During Dickerson’s college career he logged time at all five offensive line spots and although he profiles best on the interior in the NFL he should perform at a high level wherever he plays, health permitting. Pittsburgh have been heavily linked with a running back in this spot but there’s more than one way to improve a stagnant running game, including beefing up the offensive line to help carve holes out for whoever is lined up behind Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers are a smart organisation and I fully expect them to take the more long sighted option of solidifying the o-line, as opposed to the quick fix of Najee Harris or Travis Etienne.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars – Rondale Moore – WR, Purdue

Could Jacksonville go defence in this spot? Certainly. However Urban Meyer loves him some speed, and he can’t resist the temptation of picking up an extra weapon for Trevor Lawrence late in the first round knowing he’ll be on the clock again in eight picks time. Just five foot seven, Moore is undersized and probably profiles best as a slot receiver in the pros, although the same could be said of a number of receivers likely to be drafted in this range (not least Florida’s Kadarius Toney). Meyer is likely to introduce a number of college concepts to the Jaguars offence, which makes Moore a much better fit than in a traditional pro system, and it doesn’t hurt than he went off for 12 catches, 170 yards and two touchdowns versus Meyer’s Ohio State in 2018. Coaches have a habit of remembering players who played well against them, which leads me to believe that Moore could be the latest addition to a remade Jags offence.

26. Cleveland Browns – Zaven Collins – LB, Tulsa

Collins has been somewhat of a late riser on draft boards, displaying a plethora of attributes that have coaches salivating. Weighing in at 260 pounds, Collins stuffs the stat sheet in the middle of the defence but also displays the versatility to drop into coverage as well as rush the passer. Cleveland are in the unusual position of not having any glaring needs, and with the addition of Jadaveon Clowney recently they can afford to neglect edge rusher and address another area of the defence. Offensively they can look forward to the return of Odell Beckham Jr., although it is possible they look to add depth behind the star playmaker and possession wideout Jarvis Landry.

27. Baltimore Ravens – Trevon Moehrig – S, TCU

After the failed Earl Thomas experiment Baltimore is still on the lookout for a long term answer at safety, a position made all the more important in the AFC due to the seemingly ever-present threat of the Kansas City Chiefs and their vertical passing attack. Moehrig is almost unanimously considered the top safety in the 2021 draft, and there are actually a number of potential landing spots for him at the back end of the first round, with Baltimore, Cleveland, Jacksonville and New Orleans all in need of help in the secondary. Now armed with two picks near the end of the first round thanks to the Orlando Brown trade with the Chiefs, Baltimore can add the one true first round safety in the class while focusing on replacing Brown ever so slightly later on.

28. New Orleans Saints – Christian Barmore – DT, Alabama

Another draft pick, another Alabama alumni who flies off the board. Barmore is a slightly polarising prospect in that some projections have him being selected in the first half of the first round, while others see him slipping all the way into the second. Here lies a happy medium, with the Saints taking a chance on a player who struggled throughout his college career to earn a starting berth for the Crimson Tide. Barmore’s crowning moment in the college arena came in his last game at that level; he earned defensive MVP honours after Alabama routed Ohio State 52-24 in the National Championship game this January, registering two tackles for a loss and a sack as he was in Justin Fields’ face all game long. He requires a bit of projection due to a lack of college action, but with outstanding size there’s bound to be at least one team who becomes enamoured enough with Barmore to spend a first round pick on him.

29. Green Bay Packers – Rashod Bateman – WR, Minnesota

Green Bay finally give Aaron Rodgers the help he’s been crying out for at wide receiver, with Bateman coming in to immediately slot in alongside stud wideout Davante Adams. After drafting quarterback Jordan Love in the first round last year, the Packers kinda sorta admit they made a mistake with this belated selection, with Bateman slightly different to Rondale Moore and Kadarious Toney in this range as he projects best on the outside as opposed to in the slot. The Packers could also do with some help in the secondary, Kevin King is still having nightmares after the NFC Championship Game, but this pick is easily defendable and in reality would prove incredibly popular with Packers fans who’ve seen Rodgers do more with less for far too long now.

30. Buffalo Bills – Jason Oweh – DE, Penn State

On the one hand, Oweh had zero sacks in 2020. On the other, he’s six foot five, 257 pounds and has 34 and a half inch arms. Physically, Oweh is the prototype at a premium position, and that’s why I have him sneaking into the first round by way of a Bills team that could do with a little more out of its pass rush and can afford to take a risk here due to the rest of the roster being in relatively good order. With good coaching, and Bills head coach Sean McDermott is one of the top defensive minds in the NFL, Oweh could realise his vast potential and turn into a difference maker at the pro level. It’s a bit of a gamble, but it’s one that a team who made the Championship Game this past season has afforded itself the opportunity to take.

31. Baltimore Ravens (via Kansas City) – Samuel Cosmi – OT, Texas

As mentioned a few paragraphs up, Baltimore can attempt to replace the now departed Orlando Brown with the pick they acquired by trading him. Cosmi is a fringe first round prospect but comes with big school pedigree and a mammoth six foot six frame that should help him stick at tackle, unlike some of the other similarly graded offensive lineman at the first/second round turn. With 14 starts at right tackle and 21 at left tackle for the Longhorns Cosmi can start immediately in Brown’s old spot on the right side, as well as slide over in the event Ronnie Stanley sustains another injury. The Ravens have a habit of drafting well and finding value with picks later on in the first round, and they’ll be hoping 2021 is no different.

32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Najee Harris – RB, Alabama

Go on then, one more Alabama star for old times sake. Running backs typically go much later on in the draft than they used to, which helps explain why the talented Harris has slipped this far despite a stellar career for the biggest school in the nation and a physical profile which should translate to the pros. Tampa Bay don’t necessarily have a need at running back but they do have a want, with Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette essentially splitting time in 2020 on their way to a Superbowl title. Harris would help take the Bucs offence to the next level, and offers some solidity at the position beyond 2021, when both Jones and Fournette are likely to depart.

Who do you think your team should pick? Have your say in the comments or tweet @fredjstanley with your take