Spring is in the air and hope blossoms for 32 NFL franchises as they prepare for the yearly NFL draft where they dip their toes into the evergreen pool of collegiate prospects ready to make their mark in the big league. I’ll once more attempt to fill the shoes of the 32 general managers who’ll be selecting players on behalf of their teams, making my best guess at predicting which prospects will land where. Without further ado, let’s get right into it with the Chicago Bears at number one overall
1. Chicago Bears – Caleb Williams, QB, USC
It seems widely accepted that the Bears are going to tab USC product Williams with the top overall pick after they made the decision to move on from Justin Fields and trade him to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Despite a slightly underwhelming 2023 season Williams possesses an elite arm, playmaking ability and the frame to withstand the physicality of the big league. Comparisons to Patrick Mahomes may seem lofty, yet even 50% of the Chiefs star’s output would represent a roaring success for a team who have perennially struggled for even above average quarterback play.
2. Washington Commanders – Drake Maye, QB, UNC
The choice for Washington here appears to be between Maye and LSU QB Jayden Daniels, with Daniels resume perhaps the more impressive while Maye has the tools that scouts love to project into the NFL. Maye has great size and can move, drawing comparisons to the likes of Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence. Much has been made of the promising situation Williams will enter with Chicago, however it should be noted that the Commanders also give their next signal caller a punchers chance due to their receiver duo of Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson, while Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler are more than useful options out of the backfield.
3. New England Patriots – Jayden Daniels, QB, USC
It’s tough to see New England pass, no pun intended, on a quarterback after their post-Tom Brady struggles at the position. Owner Robert Kraft is reported to be desperate to see a return to relevance via an exciting offense, which should lead them to whichever one of Maye and Daniels isn’t chosen at second overall. Daniels is a fantastic athlete who can really move, however he sometimes struggles to avoid big hits and with his wiry body could find himself exposed against bigger defenders. That said, it’s hard to argue with his college production at LSU and Daniels is widely considered to have the mental makeup befitting a franchise quarterback.
4. Arizona Cardinals – Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
There’s probably a fair chance the Cardinals look to move out of this spot in order to stockpile more picks, however they already made that move last year at the beginning of their rebuild and could now feel they’re in a position to add an elite level talent to take their offense to the next level. Harrison is regarded as a generational prospect who has good size combined with exceptional explosiveness and the hands befitting the son of an NFL hall of fame receiver. Harrison Jr. has been pegged for big things since he arrived at OSU and a pairing of him and Kyler Murray is a frightening prospect for NFC West defences.
5. Los Angeles Chargers – Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
If Harrison Jr. is 1A in this class, Nabers is firmly 1B with draft expert Dane Brugler of The Athletic stating Nabers would’ve been his top prospect in either of the past two draft classes. That’s high praise and while many might predict Jim Harbaugh will make an offensive lineman his first draft choice in LA giving Justin Herbert a number one option is too good to pass up. Having let Mike Williams and Keenan Allen leave they’re surely primed to add a pass catching option in the first two rounds.
6. New York Giants – Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
New York is in a tricky spot with incumbent QB Daniel Jones coming off a torn ACL yet saddled with a rich contract that most likely keeps him as the starter for at least one more season. J.J McCarthy is an option here, yet Odunze fills a huge hole at receiver and is certainly deserving of a pick so high. Jalin Hyatt was selected in the third round last year and showed flashes late but it’s clear there’s a glaring need for an alpha to replace some of the offensive production that was lost when running back Saquon Barkley bolted for Philadelphia.
7. Tennessee Titans – Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
One of the more popular matches in the top ten is Alt to the Titans, a team in need of line help for a young quarterback in Will Levis who they’re hoping to evaluate in an adequate setting this season. Alt is a physical specimen, he ranks in the 95th percentile for the 3-cone drill and the 91st for the 20-yard shuttle, and comes from a big program in Notre Dame ready to help shore up Levis’ blindside. With 2023 first rounder Peter Skoronski embedded at left guard Tennessee could follow the Detroit Lions blueprint of building an elite offensive line and letting things develop from there.
8. Atlanta Falcons – Jared Verse, DE, Florida State
There’s an outside chance no defensive player goes in the top ten this year, which would be a record (the previous low was number eight in 2021), however in this scenario the Falcons find no trade down partner and after years of stockpiling offensive weapons in the top ten they take the plunge by selecting FSU product Verse. Since Vic Beasley amassed 16 sacks in 2016 no Falcons player has cracked double digits in a single season, a streak they’ll be hoping Verse can help them snap as soon as next year. One knock on Verse is his age, he’s 24, although it’s worth noting prospects in general are on the older side in this class due to the COVID season(s) that led to many players taking advantage of their extra year of college eligibility.
9. Chicago Bears – JC Latham, OT, Alabama
Chicago makes the wise choice to protect their Caleb Williams investment here by adding Bama’s JC Latham to the fold. A huge man at 6’6″ and 340lbs, Latham has only ever played on the right hand side which traditionally might scare teams off. However, in the modern NFL the difference between right and left matters less and less, with Philadelphia’s Lane Johnson case in point of a high draft pick who more than lived up to his draft slot despite remaining entirely on the right hand side throughout his career. An elite tackle is an elite tackle, and Latham has the upside of a franchise staple thanks to his outstanding size, traits and pedigree, particularly on the run blocking front.
10. New York Jets – Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
I’m sure the Jets would have loved to give Aaron Rodgers one of the top three receivers in the class to throw to, however with that trio long gone they instead take what might actually be the best route by strengthening an offensive line that’s been a big problem for a number of years now. At 40 years of age and coming off a torn achilles Rodgers could use all the help he can get staying upright, something Fuaga excelled at in 2023 when according to PFF he allowed a grand total of zero sacks. Some scouts view Fuaga as more of an interior offensive lineman as opposed to tackle but that shouldn’t deter New York from adding him at the final spot in the top ten, especially with incumbent guard Alijah Vera-Tucker’s future in flux while the team decides whether or not to pick up his fifth year option.
11. Minnesota Vikings – J.J McCarthy, QB, Michigan
It’s absolutely no secret that the Vikings need a quarterback and having acquired the 23rd overall selection via trade with Houston they have the ammo to trade up, if needed. In this scenario they don’t; McCarthy falls into their laps and no other quarterback needy team leapfrogs them with McCarthy a polarising prospect among the draftniks out there. On the one hand, the Michigan product did nothing but win at the college level, taking home a national title in January, however he did so on incredibly low volume and behind an absolute juggernaut of an offensive line. There’s more projection with McCarthy than other players due to his limited experience but in terms of profile he’s similar to the man he could potentially replace in Kirk Cousins, albeit with more mobility and arguably slightly less arm talent.
12. Denver Broncos – Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
Sean Peyton saw first hand what an elite tight end could do for a team when he made a star out of Jimmy Graham in New Orleans and in this instance he repeats the trick with Bowers, a YAC monster who’s been earmarked as a star at the next level for a few years. While Bowers undoubtedly possesses the traits to make it in the NFL, it should be noted that tight ends don’t always translate with Kyle Pitts one of only two rookies ever to top 1,000 yards at the position. Even Pitts, a generational prospect, has struggled since his initial breakthrough and when you look at where some of the best tight ends in the league were drafted you may begin to see a pattern (Travis Kelce in the third round and George Kittle in the fifth are two that immediately spring to mind). Another consideration with Bowers is the “tightrope” ankle surgery he undertook last October, a procedure that has been known to rob players of their explosiveness in recent seasons.
13. Las Vegas Raiders – Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
A second defensive player flies off the board as the Raiders address one of their many defensive holes with Alabama playmaker Arnold. The Las Vegas defense actually played well down the stretch under then interim head coach Antonio Pierce, yet they notably lacked skill in the secondary which is something Arnold should be able to fix in a pinch upon joining the team. Quarterback might be in play here, Gardner Minshew is currently projected to start, however it might be more likely that the team attempts to move back into the first round later on to grab one of Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr. as opposed to reaching for them inside the top 13. A first team All-American in 2023 with five interceptions, Arnold certainly doesn’t lack for skill and while he doesn’t possess elite measurables he is more than big enough at six feet tall exactly, while his 4.50 40-yard dash time is right around average for a prospect at the position.
14. New Orleans Saints – Dallas Turner, DE, Alabama
The Crimson Tide have their second consecutive defensive standout go off the board here, and their third player overall in the top 14, in the form of Turner, a potential gamewrecking force on the defensive line who head coach Dennis Allen will absolutely love. The Saints added Chase Young in free agency on a one year deal, however he’s already undergone neck surgery and with Zach Baun heading to Philadelphia on a free agent deal of his own they could certainly do with the pass rushing juice a first round rookie would provide. Turner racked up double digit sacks in Tuscaloosa last year and was also used in coverage on occasion, something Allen would be well placed to utilise with his well crafted and flexible defensive scheme.
15. Indianapolis Colts – Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
The defensive run on players continues as the Colts address one of their glaring weaknesses from a season ago. The immediate question everyone seems to be asking about Mitchell is whether or not a player from such a small school is deserving of such high selection, yet the counterpoints of his production, athletic testing (4.33 40) and strong Senior Bowl showing would appear to quash those concerns handily. Like with Tennessee earlier in this exercise, this team/position fit appears to be a match made in heaven, especially as the middle of the first round appears to be the defensive sweetspot of this particular pool of players.
16. Seattle Seahawks – Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas
After watching Aaron Donald wreak havoc on their offensive line for a decade the Seahawks decide to beef up their own interior with Murphy, a pass rushing force who is slightly undersized – not unlike the aforementioned future hall of famer from LA. Offensive line is another area Seattle could decide to reinforce, however with a defensive minded head coach in town you wouldn’t be surprised to see them attempt to recreate the unit Mike Macdonald had in Baltimore, with Murphy comp Justin Madubuike one of his main lieutenants.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars – Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
With Calvin Ridley departing in free agency the Jaguars are in prime position to take the first of the “second tier” wideouts in the class, with Thomas widely regarded to be the fourth receiver on the 2024 Mount Rushmore. 6’4″ and over 200lbs, Thomas possesses prototypical size and has good hands and after the catch ability, with the main concern about his game being his route running and overall polish. You’d be forgiven for thinking the above sounds a lot like a player like D.K Metcalf, another specimen who fell due to questions about his ability to run the full route tree. Metcalf was a great example of teams overthinking it; in this scenario no such thing happens as Jacksonville gladly give Trevor Lawrence a new toy to play with alongside off-season recruit Gabe Davis.
18. Cincinnati Bengals – Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
Cincinnati is one of a number of teams who’ve struggled to protect their franchise quarterback in recent seasons, with the star passer falling foul to multiple ailments in the 2023 campaign. Fashanu would appear to be the last of the tier one offensive tackles on the board, making this a straightforward selection as the Bengals aim to return to the post-season in the new campaign. Although Cincy already has Trent and Orlando Brown on the roster they could move one, or Fashanu, inside for a year in order to facilitate the Penn State product. You can never have too many offensive lineman, as they say (if “they” don’t say that, “they” should).
19. Los Angeles Rams – Laiatu Latu, DE, UCLA
It’s hard to believe the Rams haven’t made a first round pick since Jared Goff in 2016, yet after a string of trades for veterans over the past near-decade here we are. Latu would add talent to a defense that is lacking in it and is many experts preferred pass rusher in the class. The UCLA edge comes with a fairly notable caveat, however, as he has already once retired on medical grounds due to a neck injury. As a result it’s likely he won’t be on some teams boards at all, similarly to Miami Dolphins pass rusher Jaelan Phillips. That said, it only takes one team to fall in love with Latu’s production in 2023, when he chalked up 13 sacks and 21 TFL’s.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers – Graham Barton, OL, Duke
Barton played tackle at college but is widely projected as an interior offensive lineman in the NFL, which shouldn’t put the Steelers off as they have holes all across the front five. If they’re to give Russell Wilson (or Justin Fields) a chance to succeed next season they’ll need to improve upon their line play from the past few years where they’ve struggled to both protect their quarterback and open rushing lanes for Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. While some teams don’t like to draft interior lineman high it’s worth remembering that in 2010 the Steelers drafted centre Maurkice Pouncey at 18 overall, also under the stewardship of current head coach Mike Tomlin.
21. Miami Dolphins – Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington
The run on offensive lineman continues as Miami beefs up an offensive line that lost both Connor Williams and Robert Hunt in free agency. Left tackle Terron Armstead has had his injury problems for more than a few years now too, so a lineman with versatility would certainly appeal to Mike McDaniel as he aims to give Tua Tagovailoa the protection he needs in order to deliver passes to his dynamic wide receiver duo. Fautanu tested well and could play either guard or tackle depending on how his new team views his skillset, although he is on the older side for a prospect (as a college junior, no less) as he’ll soon turn 24.
22. Philadelphia Eagles – Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
The Georgia to Philadelphia pipeline joke has been well done now and it’s unlikely to fade away anytime soon if Howie Roseman tabs Mims with the Eagles first round pick. Mims is raw but possesses the physical gifts that offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland will love. With Lane Johnson still going strong Mims can sit and learn for a year, which would be a wise investment given the organisational priority placed on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Philly has also been linked with a myriad of cornerbacks in the class, however Howie Roseman has yet to draft one in the first round during his long tenure at the helm and with Isiah Rodgers recently reinstated from the commissioner’s exempt list Roseman may well take his chances at that position, as he has done many times over the past decade-plus.
23. Minnesota Vikings – Cooper DeJean, DB, Iowa
Most mocks don’t even have the Vikings making this pick as they’re widely projected to move it in a trade up for a quarterback, however as we have them staying put and selecting J.J McCarthy at 11 they can add to their secondary in the form of Iowa’s DeJean, a cornerback who some see more as a safety in the pros. DeJean is big for a corner, in many ways the polar opposite of fellow first round corner prospect Nate Wiggins, and while he’s not as twitchy as someone like Wiggins he certainly has the production and pedigree to justify this draft slot. With the offensive side of the ball largely taken care of Minnesota would be thrilled here to address a defense that was a liability in 2023.
24. Dallas Cowboys – Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon
Jerry Jones isn’t shy of addressing the interior offensive line early in the draft and with Tyler Biadasz departed for pastures new they tab their centre of the present and future in the form of JPJ, a larger than average prospect for the position who excelled for the Ducks last season, earning first team All-American honours. Dallas could make a move for a wide receiver to play opposite CeeDee Lamb at this spot, keep an eye on Texas pass catcher Adonai Mitchell, however it’s an underrated of quality of Jones that he does pay attention to the lines of scrimmage and doesn’t just focus on the glamour positions.
25. Green Bay Packers – Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
Green Bay get a great value in Wiggins this late in the first round, grabbing an elite, if undersized, athlete who’ll immediately address their oft exposed inability to cover on the back end. Wiggins is more skinny than outright small, he’s 6’1″, but with a 4.28 40 time in his back pocket and just 176 yards allowed in coverage in 2023 there’s no doubt he can play. Fun fact: with the exception of Jordan Love the Packers haven’t taken an offensive player in the first round since 2011. That’s 12 out of 13 first rounders, a quite impressive (if not a little strange) record.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Chop Robinson, DE, Penn State
With Shaq Barrett departed in free agency Tampa Bay has a fairly obvious need at pass rusher, with Robinson stepping in to fill the void. Robinson struggled to get to the quarterback in college, however his mediocre production might not deter NFL teams from salivating over his elite measurables and explosive physique. Robinson is a boom or bust prospect but he couldn’t land in a better spot than under Buccaneers head coach and defensive mastermind Todd Bowles.
27. Arizona Cardinals – Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
If McKinstry’s play is as exciting as his name the Cardinals will have themselves a steal at 27, nabbing the second Alabama corner of the first round after adding Marvin Harrison Jr. earlier in this mock on the offensive side of the ball. McKinstry was overshadowed by teammate Terrion Arnold at Bama but is a promising prospect in his own right, although he does come with injury concerns after suffering a foot injury this spring. Considered one of the more physical corners in this class, Kool-Aid is also known for his football IQ which should play in head coach Jonathan Gannon’s defensive scheme. Arizona is in desperate need of defensive reinforcement and McKinstry would be a solid way of getting the ball rolling in the desert.
28. Buffalo Bills – Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
Stefon Diggs has been traded to Houston and Gabe Davis left in free agency, leaving two glaring holes on the depth chart and a severe lack of pass catching options for star QB Josh Allen. In comes Mitchell, a big bodied, fast athlete with big play potential (15.4 YPC in 2023). Strictly an outside receiver, Mitchell should slot in nicely given the Bills already have Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel who will command the majority of reps in the slot, alongside tight end pairing Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox.
29. Detroit Lions – Darius Robinson, DE, Missouri
Aidan Hutchinson gets his running mate on the defensive line as general manager Brad Holmes aims to raise the Lions defensive floor to a level more in line with the prolific offense, adding Robinson to a unit that ranked 23rd in opponents points per game last year. Robinson stood out in Senior Bowl practices and brings inside/outside versatility to the table, making him a good value this late in the first round. Strong rather than twitchy, the Missouri product is widely considered to be pro ready and should be an immediate contributor to whichever team selects him.
30. Baltimore Ravens – Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia
With Odell Beckham Jr. departed in free agency the Ravens continue to surround Lamar Jackson with weapons as they look to take the next step in their offensive evolution under coordinator Todd Monken. The Georgia star would pair nicely with Zay Flowers and with Mark Andrews returning from ankle surgery Baltimore should be well placed to repeat their regular season success in 2024. Whether or not that translates to the post-season remains to be seen, but they’ll be well aware that in order to compete with Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and company in the AFC a high powered offense is a prerequisite.
31. San Francisco 49ers – Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
The 49ers could go in a number of different directions here, with both offensive and defensive line in play as well as the secondary and perhaps even wide receiver if Brandon Aiyuk is traded, as he’s rumoured to possibly be on the move as he seeks a new contract. Guyton would represent a genuine case of “best player available” and shore up an offensive line that crumbled at the worst possible time late on in San Francisco’s Superbowl loss. A giant at 6’7″, Guyton is quite raw but has all of the tools to develop into a cornerstone on the offensive line and help protect Brock Purdy while opening up rushing lanes for all-world running back Christian McCaffrey.
32. Kansas City Chiefs – Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State
Following Rashee Rice’s arrest earlier this month the Chiefs pull the same trick they did when Tyreek Hill was in legal trouble, drafting Rice’s potential replacement (in Hill’s case it was Mecole Hardman) as an insurance policy in case the sophomore receiver misses all or part of the 2024 season. The Chiefs have also previously shown a propensity for taking playmakers with the final pick of the first round, in 2020 it was running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and being honest even if Rice is able to play a part come September KC could do with more juice on offense with Travis Kelce ageing and Marquise Brown more of a stopgap option on a one year free agent deal.
Do you agree with who your team selected? Have your say in the comments or tweet @fredjstanley to tell me why I’m wrong.
Fred Stanley Sport 